I’ve been puzzling over why Bev Perdue isn’t doing better in the polls.

Now I have a theory: It’s Richard Moore’s fault.

Last week I saw one poll that showed Perdue leading Pat McCrory by only two points. The same poll showed Barack Obama only two points behind John McCain in North Carolina. Both Obama and Perdue are in the low 40s.

How can the Democratic candidate for Governor be running only four points ahead of the presidential candidate?

One answer lies in the black vote. Obama is getting 90-plus percent. Perdue, only about 70.

She’ll almost certainly get to 90. If the black vote is 20 percent of the total (it’s usually about 18) that’s four more points here.

Still, that’s short of where Jim Hunt was in 1992 and 1996 and where Mike Easley was in 2000 and 2004. Both were over 50 percent at this point.

This is where Richard Moore comes in.

During the primary, I thought Moore’s ads made him look and sound like a Republican. They were about managing money and fighting crime. And he ran a lot of ads on Fox News, the home of the Republican primary voter.

Maybe it’s that – while Moore’s positive ads and his ads attacking Perdue didn’t hurt her in the primary – they hurt her with general election voters.

And maybe that’s where she hurt herself by not attacking Moore at the end.

In fact, McCrory and Moore look and sound a bit alike. Maybe Moore’s positive message was a good setup for McCrory.

Maybe this explains why Moore hasn’t endorsed Perdue.

Click Here to discuss and comment on this and other articles.