With the campaign in its final month, here are some predictions and observations:

• Speaker Black’s troubles won’t hurt Democrats in North Carolina. Oh, voters don’t like what they’re hearing. They just don’t know which party controls the House or whether Black is a Democrat or Republican.

• The Wake County school bonds are going down to a big defeat.

• Which means impact fees will be a big issue in Raleigh city elections next year. Politically speaking, you can’t raise them too much.

• Illegal immigration is a big issue – not just for Republican candidates, but for Democrats also. One in-state Democratic consultant told me this is the biggest issue his candidates are talking about.

• Democrats say Brad Miller should easily defeat someone as wild and wooly as Vernon Robinson, but they are worried that Brad hasn’t started answering Robinson’s attack ads, especially on illegal immigration.

• Speaking of which, this is one of those factoids that stick in my mind: a study showed that, of all the new jobs created in America in the last five years, 56 percent went to illegal immigrants and 85 percent to foreign-born workers, legal and illegal. And you wonder why this is an issue?

• “Scaring seniors about Social Security”– which Ronald Reagan used to accuse Democrats of – still works. Witness Rep. Bob Etheridge’s use of the issue in his district.

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