Imagine for a moment that you’re a Republican candidate running in a down ballot race in a swing district: Your fate is in the hands of Donald Trump and Joe Biden. For example:

Turnout. If Democrats vote and Republicans don’t your ship sinks – but there’s not much you can do about that. Biden and Trump determine turnout. Not down-ballot races like yours.

Ticket Splitters. If Trump beats Biden on election day he’s handed you a gift – ticket splitters who vote for Trump will probably vote for you. But what happens to you if your district votes for Biden? Can you get those splitters, who vote for Biden, to vote for you?

It’s hard. But not impossible. In 2018, George Holding needed the votes of Democratic leaning ticket splitters in Wake County. He and his opponent disagreed about Sanctuary Cities – and ticket splitters agreed with George. Take a hard look at your opponent’s stands, find a defining issue, and draw a line between you and your opponent.

How will you know a defining issue?

Don’t guess. Most candidates do. But it doesn’t work out. Take a poll. Or, if you can’t afford a poll find someone who has good sense, who’s studied polls, and ask their advice.

Finally, don’t wait, go to work now to get the swing votes you need if Trump comes up short. That way, if Trump wins your district you’ll be okay and, if he loses, you might survive.