Political Stories: Jesse Sees a Second Poll
Nobody ever accused Jesse Helms of being naïve but he made a pretty serious misjudgment when it came to running against Jim Hunt â Jesse didnât think running against Hunt would be a cakewalk but he had the idea he was as popular (or more popular) than the governor and on top of that he was the incumbent and could raise more money than Hunt â so Jesse felt pretty sure, after a few bumps in the road, heâd cruise to victory.
Tom Ellis decided to disabuse Jesse of that notion by showing him a poll.
In the 1982 election Republicans took a good old-fashioned thrashing from Democrats â a lot like in 2008.
Mr. Ellis took the first poll â in Jesseâs race against Jim Hunt â two weeks later (in November of 1982) and when Jesse sat down in the conference room at the Congressional Club and Arthur opened the poll it must have seemed a little like déjà vu â only this time the first words out of Arthurâs mouth were Jesse was 25 points behind.
It got worse.
Next Arthur said the real bad news was Jesseâs numbers were set in stone â 40% of the voters liked him and 45% disliked him and nothing on earth was going to change those numbers. They were carved in granite.
I didnât imagine then carved in granite meant Jesseâs popularity wasnât going to change for the next three decades but, apparently, it hasnât because Public Policy Pollingâs new poll (about the legacies of Jesse Helms and Jim Hunt) shows Jesseâs popularity just about exactly where it was 27 years ago.
(Huntâs popularity, back then, was a staggering 70% â so in a back-handed sort of way his 43% today may be a testimony to the lasting effects of negative ads.)
So, how did Jesse win in 1984?
Well, Arthur used to say there are three kinds of elections.
One: An election where you like both candidates â and vote for the one you like best.
Two: Where you like one and dislike the other â which is an easy win if youâre the popular candidate.
Three: Where you dislike both â and vote for the one you dislike least.
So what we had to do was simple: Make Jim Hunt more unpopular than Jesse.
After Arthur finished going through the poll he looked up at Jesse and said gently maybe it was time Senator Helms thought about retiring.
Jesse didnât blink. He leaned back pursed his lips and said not one thing in that poll mattered to him. Because he didnât believe in polls. Then, he said, heâd already promised Dot (Mrs. Helms) he was going to leave the Senate at the end of his term so they could come home to play with their grandchildren.
Looking back, something Jesse said later in the meeting makes me suspect that wasnât quite the truth â but Ole Jesse could dance the political version of the dance of the seven veils as well as any woman I ever saw and if he was trying a little gamesmanship â well, Tom Ellisâs reaction didnât disappoint him. Mr. Ellis said in flash Jesse had to run for his country. And for the conservative cause. And Jesse waved another veil and said he appreciated the compliment but reckoned he wasnât really irreplaceable in the Senate.
Then Arthur asked a question that cut right to the marrow, saying, Senator, if you could wave a magic wand and serve six more years in the Senate â would you do it? and Jesse slipped and said without thinking, Of course. I love serving in the Senate, and Arthur pounced and said, So the real question is can you beat Jim Hunt?
Tom Ellis saw that flash of daylight and didnât waste any time â he said Jesse didnât have to make up his mind until January of 1984 (when Jesse had to file to run with the Board of Elections) then added, Give us the next year to try to change these poll numbers â letâs see if we can get you in a position to beat Hunt â then make up your mind.
And Jesse said that suited him fine â which, naturally, made me wonder about that promise heâd said he made Dot.
Anyway, we went ahead with the campaign, but nine months later in the fall of 1983 we hadnât changed those poll numbers much at all.
Then out of a clear blue sky lightning struck.
To be continued⦠Finding the Key to Beating Jim Hunt.
Click Here to discuss and comment on this and other articles.
Political Stories: Jesse Sees a Second Poll
Nobody ever accused Jesse Helms of being naïve but he made a pretty serious misjudgment when it came to running against Jim Hunt â Jesse didnât think running against Hunt would be a cakewalk but he had the idea he was as popular (or more popular) than the governor and on top of that he was the incumbent and could raise more money than Hunt â so Jesse felt pretty sure, after a few bumps in the road, heâd cruise to victory.
Tom Ellis decided to disabuse Jesse of that notion by showing him a poll.
In the 1982 election Republicans took a good old-fashioned thrashing from Democrats â a lot like in 2008.
Mr. Ellis took the first poll â in Jesseâs race against Jim Hunt â two weeks later (in November of 1982) and when Jesse sat down in the conference room at the Congressional Club and Arthur opened the poll it must have seemed a little like déjà vu â only this time the first words out of Arthurâs mouth were Jesse was 25 points behind.
It got worse.
Next Arthur said the real bad news was Jesseâs numbers were set in stone â 40% of the voters liked him and 45% disliked him and nothing on earth was going to change those numbers. They were carved in granite.
I didnât imagine then carved in granite meant Jesseâs popularity wasnât going to change for the next three decades but, apparently, it hasnât because Public Policy Pollingâs new poll (about the legacies of Jesse Helms and Jim Hunt) shows Jesseâs popularity just about exactly where it was 27 years ago.
(Huntâs popularity, back then, was a staggering 70% â so in a back-handed sort of way his 43% today may be a testimony to the lasting effects of negative ads.)
So, how did Jesse win in 1984?
Well, Arthur used to say there are three kinds of elections.
One: An election where you like both candidates â and vote for the one you like best.
Two: Where you like one and dislike the other â which is an easy win if youâre the popular candidate.
Three: Where you dislike both â and vote for the one you dislike least.
So what we had to do was simple: Make Jim Hunt more unpopular than Jesse.
After Arthur finished going through the poll he looked up at Jesse and said gently maybe it was time Senator Helms thought about retiring.
Jesse didnât blink. He leaned back pursed his lips and said not one thing in that poll mattered to him. Because he didnât believe in polls. Then, he said, heâd already promised Dot (Mrs. Helms) he was going to leave the Senate at the end of his term so they could come home to play with their grandchildren.
Looking back, something Jesse said later in the meeting makes me suspect that wasnât quite the truth â but Ole Jesse could dance the political version of the dance of the seven veils as well as any woman I ever saw and if he was trying a little gamesmanship â well, Tom Ellisâs reaction didnât disappoint him. Mr. Ellis said in flash Jesse had to run for his country. And for the conservative cause. And Jesse waved another veil and said he appreciated the compliment but reckoned he wasnât really irreplaceable in the Senate.
Then Arthur asked a question that cut right to the marrow, saying, Senator, if you could wave a magic wand and serve six more years in the Senate â would you do it? and Jesse slipped and said without thinking, Of course. I love serving in the Senate, and Arthur pounced and said, So the real question is can you beat Jim Hunt?
Tom Ellis saw that flash of daylight and didnât waste any time â he said Jesse didnât have to make up his mind until January of 1984 (when Jesse had to file to run with the Board of Elections) then added, Give us the next year to try to change these poll numbers â letâs see if we can get you in a position to beat Hunt â then make up your mind.
And Jesse said that suited him fine â which, naturally, made me wonder about that promise heâd said he made Dot.
Anyway, we went ahead with the campaign, but nine months later in the fall of 1983 we hadnât changed those poll numbers much at all.
Then out of a clear blue sky lightning struck.
To be continued⦠Finding the Key to Beating Jim Hunt.
Click Here to discuss and comment on this and other articles.