The ground can shift quickly in politics. And I believe it has – on both the state and national levels.

Here was the conventional wisdom not long ago – like, last week:

• A national tsunami will hit the Republicans in November.

• Jim Black’s ethical troubles will sink North Carolina Democrats in November.

But I believe the conventional wisdom now is shifting to:

• The Iraq/terrorism issue may save Republicans.

• Voters don’t care about Black’s problems.

On Iraq, Republicans in Congress moved quickly to put Democrats on the defensive after Bush’s first good week in a long while.

(Note they used the exact term I predicted: “cut and run.”)

Republicans clearly think this wins for them this year.

On Black, Democratic consultants tell me polling shows that voters outside of Raleigh don’t know or care about Black’s ethics issues.

They say the campaign is about education and health care – winning Democratic issues.

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