My opinion of the Meredith College poll is higher than of media polls – because of David McLennan, professor of political science at Meredith and director of the poll.

Responding to my blog questioning media polls, McLennan said we shouldn’t overreact to any poll now, for two reasons:

“1. It is too early. There is a polling problem called ‘non-response’ bias. I won’t bore you with the details, but suffice it to say that in high stakes questions, like presidential election survey questions, when people are not sure, they tend to go against the incumbent. Hence, the Trump lead. This bias lessens as we get closer to Election Day, after people actually start caring. This is why you see third party candidates getting much higher support than is reflected in their voting.

“2. The second reason is that polls are all over the map almost a year out—even in the states that the Times mentioned. This divergence will decrease the closer we get to Election Day, except for polls, like Rasmussen, who have a built-in bias.”

By cosmic coincidence, the November Meredith Poll came out this week: “Meredith Poll Explores Voters’ Approval of Political Leaders, Perceptions of Political Parties, and Level of Civic Knowledge.”

The level of knowledge is abysmal. Only 35% knew which branch of state government approves political maps. Only 33% knew the name of North Carolina’s lieutenant governor, Mark Robinson.

Media coverage of the poll, of course, focused on the 2024 horserace.

President Biden led Donald Trump 40-39, and Josh Stein led Robinson 38-36.

The report added, “Although it is very premature to survey voters on a Trump-Biden matchup in the 2024 general election, our results confirmed what most election watchers believe — we are going to have a very tight contest for North Carolina’s 16 Electoral College votes.”

In the months ahead, we should heed McLennan’s cautions.

And follow the Meredith Poll.