Maybe it’s just an odd coincidence but two ‘Independent’ candidates are running and two more are on the cusp of qualifying to run and every one of them is in a ‘safe’ Republican district.

House Majority Leader Mike Hager already has an Independent opponent (with no Democrat in the race) and Senate Republican Leader Phil Berger is on the cusp of having an Independent opponent.

Let’s look at Senator Berger’s district – where party registration is:

            Republican     36%

            Democrat        41%

            Independent  22%

That’s a 5% partisan edge against Senator Berger but that’s misleading because a substantial number of the small town rural Democrats in Berger’s District are Conservatives who usually vote for Republican candidates and that shift turns a 5 point disadvantage in party registration into a 5 point (or more) advantage based on voting behavior.

And that’s how redistricting helps Senator Berger win reelection – roughly 40% of the voters in his District usually vote for Republicans while roughly 35% usually vote for Democrats.

So where does Senator Berger land if he ends up with an Independent opponent? I have a friend who, two years ago, ran for reelection against an Independent. Here’s the dilemma he faced at the beginning of his campaign:

The voters who usually voted for a Democrat where voting for the Independent against the Republican.

The conservative Democrats who usually voted for a Republican were undecided.

And the Independents – who had a hearty dislike for both parties – leaned toward the Independent.

So having an Independent opponent lands Phil Berger in a much different and tougher race.  

The Democrats may have figured out a best way to turn an election in a ‘safe’ Republican District into a competitive race: Don’t run a Democrat – support an Independent.