Mark Johnson writes in today’s N&O and Charlotte Observer that it’s a mathematical certainty North Carolina’s presidential primary will count this year.

But that doesn’t mean it will be decisive. Or that all Tar Heel Democrats will be happy about it.

Take Richard Moore and Beverly Perdue. Suddenly, their calculus has a big X Factor. Do I endorse Clinton or Obama? If I don’t, will I make women mad – or African-Americans mad? Pick your poison.

(Remember this history: Terry Sanford made his mark by having the guts to endorse JFK when the rest of the delegation stuck with LBJ. It paid off for North Carolina; JFK helped the Research Triangle Park get off the ground.)

Here’s another X Factor: Moore and Perdue – and any candidate running for any office – will have a harder time getting heard. TV ad time will be scarcer. The presidential primary will dominate the papers and TV news.

North Carolina Democrats didn’t move up our primary in part because they’re deathly afraid of Democratic presidential candidates. Our worst years – 1972, 1984 and 1994 – were the direct result of unpopular presidential candidates or sitting Presidents. (That would be Bill Clinton.)

Now we face the prospect of that whole mess dumped right on top of us. It may be about as welcome as an outbreak of bird flu.

And don’t get carried away with the notion that North Carolina will be the place where the race gets settled. To follow Mark Johnson’s reasoning, the race could be just a close coming out of our May Super Tuesday as it is today.

Indiana votes the same day as North Carolina. Senator Evan Bayh, auditioning for VP, will pull out all the stops there. So Obama needs North Carolina. That means our superdelegates – Governor Easley, the Democratic congressmen and DNC members – will be under intense pressure from African-Americans.

Somebody answer me this: Are either Moore or Perdue superdelegates? If they are, is it too late to resign?

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