It’s the Obama, Stupid
September 8, 2010 - by
For a long time, I thought the main driver in this election was the rotten economy.
But the 2010 election instead may be all about the colossus who stands astride American politics today – for better and for worse: Barack Obama.
That thought occurred to me when I read this from Tom Jensen at Public Policy Polling:
“How people are planning to vote this fall in the state is highly correlated with how they feel about Obama. Folks who like the President are planning to vote Democratic by an 86-5 margin but those who do not like Obama are going toward the Republicans 85-5. With a majority in the state unhappy with Obama that’s a big problem for Democrats and it’s a change from past election cycles where the party held on at the state level because folks separated out their feelings about national Democrats from North Carolina Democrats.”
Obama’s election in 2008 was an earthquake. He is, shall we say, fundamentally different from any prior President. He is black. He has real charisma. He is “different” – a description that means a lot of things to people, good and bad.
He won because he inspired a surge of new voters – especially minorities and young people.
But his election clearly upset a lot of people – and seemed to unhinge some. That’s the root of the stubborn belief that he’s a socialist, or a Muslim, or not born in America
Those are the excited voters in this election. And there is nothing like fear, anger and the smell of victory to motivate voters.
After all, Obama’s election in 2008 was rooted in fear and anger toward George Bush and the Republicans. Obama caught that wave with a message of hope and change that drove millions of people to the polls.
But now the voters who elected him seem dispirited – or disappointed that he hasn’t yet fixed the economy, brought about world peace, saved the planet from pollution and changed the culture of Washington
If this theory of the election is correct, there may not be a lot that Democratic candidates can do. It will be hard to separate themselves from the President, and if they try they will make the Obama legions mad.
Without a dramatic change over the next eight weeks, Obama and the Democrats could suffer as big a defeat this year as Republicans suffered in 2006 and 2008 combined.
Of course, Obama will still be President after November. Then we’ll have a heck of a battle the next two years.
Stay tuned.
It’s the Obama, Stupid
September 8, 2010/
For a long time, I thought the main driver in this election was the rotten economy.
But the 2010 election instead may be all about the colossus who stands astride American politics today – for better and for worse: Barack Obama.
That thought occurred to me when I read this from Tom Jensen at Public Policy Polling:
“How people are planning to vote this fall in the state is highly correlated with how they feel about Obama. Folks who like the President are planning to vote Democratic by an 86-5 margin but those who do not like Obama are going toward the Republicans 85-5. With a majority in the state unhappy with Obama that’s a big problem for Democrats and it’s a change from past election cycles where the party held on at the state level because folks separated out their feelings about national Democrats from North Carolina Democrats.”
Obama’s election in 2008 was an earthquake. He is, shall we say, fundamentally different from any prior President. He is black. He has real charisma. He is “different” – a description that means a lot of things to people, good and bad.
He won because he inspired a surge of new voters – especially minorities and young people.
But his election clearly upset a lot of people – and seemed to unhinge some. That’s the root of the stubborn belief that he’s a socialist, or a Muslim, or not born in America
Those are the excited voters in this election. And there is nothing like fear, anger and the smell of victory to motivate voters.
After all, Obama’s election in 2008 was rooted in fear and anger toward George Bush and the Republicans. Obama caught that wave with a message of hope and change that drove millions of people to the polls.
But now the voters who elected him seem dispirited – or disappointed that he hasn’t yet fixed the economy, brought about world peace, saved the planet from pollution and changed the culture of Washington
If this theory of the election is correct, there may not be a lot that Democratic candidates can do. It will be hard to separate themselves from the President, and if they try they will make the Obama legions mad.
Without a dramatic change over the next eight weeks, Obama and the Democrats could suffer as big a defeat this year as Republicans suffered in 2006 and 2008 combined.
Of course, Obama will still be President after November. Then we’ll have a heck of a battle the next two years.
Stay tuned.