Is Hillary Toast?

The Clinton campaign may not be dead, but it’s on life support.



She could change the momentum by winning Texas and Ohio in two weeks.



But it’s hard to change the delegate math. She would have to win 70 percent of the vote in the primaries left – including North Carolina.



Who would have thunk it? Last year, who thought the Clintons could be denied the nomination?



Well, a lot of people thunk it. Barack Obama and John Edwards, to name two. Both of them gambled that, if they could get into a one-on-one contest with Clinton, they would win.



Clinton’s problem all along was that if she wasn’t your first choice, she wasn’t your second choice either. Now, all the other candidates’ votes are consolidating behind Obama. Plus, he generated enthusiasm that generated new voters.



The Clintons will not go away easily. Beating them now may be like the old NRA slogan: You’ll take away our nomination when you pry it out of our cold, dead fingers.



The operative words there are “the Clintons.” Because Hillary’s greatest strength and her greatest weakness is always Bill.



When she was on her own – when she showed grit and emotion in New Hampshire – she did well.



But when Bill took over the stage – like in South Carolina – she got hurt.



Hillary also has an Al Gore problem. When she speaks, you can hear the gears grinding. To switch to a music metaphor: Obama is smooth and jazz-like, while listening to Clinton is like listening to Lawrence Welk do the Rolling Stones. You like the tune, but something is missing.



The Clintons’ chances now rest with the superdelegates. That is, with a gang of politicians whose main concern is self-interest. And who are free to change their minds as much as they want. That’s why they’re called superdelegates.



Barring a huge mistake by Obama – or that rogue satellite falling on his head – how likely is it that the superdelegates will overrule the primary voters and caucus-goers?



The Clintons will argue electability in the fall. But that’s hard to do when you’ve lost nine elections in a row.



They will point out – and rightly so – that the superdelegates were created (by the 1982 Hunt Commission) for one explicit purpose: to help the Democratic Party nominate a winner.



Of course, the superdelegates promptly picked Walter Mondale.



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Gary Pearce

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Is Hillary Toast?

The Clinton campaign may not be dead, but it’s on life support.



She could change the momentum by winning Texas and Ohio in two weeks.



But it’s hard to change the delegate math. She would have to win 70 percent of the vote in the primaries left – including North Carolina.



Who would have thunk it? Last year, who thought the Clintons could be denied the nomination?



Well, a lot of people thunk it. Barack Obama and John Edwards, to name two. Both of them gambled that, if they could get into a one-on-one contest with Clinton, they would win.



Clinton’s problem all along was that if she wasn’t your first choice, she wasn’t your second choice either. Now, all the other candidates’ votes are consolidating behind Obama. Plus, he generated enthusiasm that generated new voters.



The Clintons will not go away easily. Beating them now may be like the old NRA slogan: You’ll take away our nomination when you pry it out of our cold, dead fingers.



The operative words there are “the Clintons.” Because Hillary’s greatest strength and her greatest weakness is always Bill.



When she was on her own – when she showed grit and emotion in New Hampshire – she did well.



But when Bill took over the stage – like in South Carolina – she got hurt.



Hillary also has an Al Gore problem. When she speaks, you can hear the gears grinding. To switch to a music metaphor: Obama is smooth and jazz-like, while listening to Clinton is like listening to Lawrence Welk do the Rolling Stones. You like the tune, but something is missing.



The Clintons’ chances now rest with the superdelegates. That is, with a gang of politicians whose main concern is self-interest. And who are free to change their minds as much as they want. That’s why they’re called superdelegates.



Barring a huge mistake by Obama – or that rogue satellite falling on his head – how likely is it that the superdelegates will overrule the primary voters and caucus-goers?



The Clintons will argue electability in the fall. But that’s hard to do when you’ve lost nine elections in a row.



They will point out – and rightly so – that the superdelegates were created (by the 1982 Hunt Commission) for one explicit purpose: to help the Democratic Party nominate a winner.



Of course, the superdelegates promptly picked Walter Mondale.



Click Here to discuss and comment on this and other articles.

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Gary Pearce

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