Only one result from the Iowa Democratic caucuses will surprise me tonight: a big win for Hillary.

Three outcomes seem possible:

• Edwards wins big. But Mr. Conventional Wisdom decrees that he has to win again somewhere else to prove he’s not a one-hit wonder.

• Obama wins big. And Mr. Conventional Wisdom says that Hillary is in deep doo-doo.

• Nobody gets a clear win. So we move from the snows of Iowa to the snows of New Hampshire.

If Hillary wins big, count me shocked.

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