The Clinton-Obama race is about two things: delegates and momentum. On both counts, North Carolina’s primary election counts.

Here’s why. After today’s Potomac Primary – with 238 delegates – five big primaries are left:

• Wisconsin, next Tuesday, 92 delegates

• Ohio, March 4, 161 delegates

• Texas, also March 4, 228 delegates

• Pennsylvania, April 22, 188 delegates

• North Carolina, May 6, 134 delegates.

Keep in mind that – so far – the entire process has lasted six weeks. Iowa caucused January 3.

The pace changes dramatically now. There are fewer states – and more time. More time to build – or lose – momentum. More time to make a mistake. More time for a story line to set in that boosts – or blocks – a candidate.

So far this year, all predictions have been wrong. Especially mine. But fear not. Here is my prediction now:

It’s all about those Big Five states. Whoever wins three out of five wins the nomination.

So here’s hoping they’re tied 2-2 when they come here.

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