Hillary’s Blues
A political campaign, by nature, is born in chaos. Think of it this way: In twelve months Barack Obama has created the equivalent of a mammoth $200 million corporation, employing hundreds of people who’ve, mostly, never worked together before. Add to that fierce competition and you can see why most campaigns become not well-oiled machines, but out of control juggernauts.
About the best a campaign can hope for, if it ever gets its feet on the ground, is to have time to take a breath and find a way to win. And that’s not simple either. Reading the shifting sands of public opinion (the be-all and end-all of politics) can be a mystery. And charting a course can be pure blind guesswork. But, that said, in a good campaign a moment sometimes comes when you say, I get it. I know where this election is going, and the revelation is clear as a bell. You can feel the gears click into place. The juggernaut has direction.
Barack Obama has had that moment. He knows what his election – in the primary – is about. He knows where he’s going. He knows what to do to win.
Hillary, on the other hand, is befuddled.
North Carolina is a good example.
Obama – I’m guessing – has set a target to win 90-95% of the African-American vote. A goal he has repeatedly accomplished. Then, I’m guessing, he asked himself, How much of the other votes do I need to win? The answer is around 20%. Then he says, Where do I get it? And the answer is simple: White liberals who prefer him to Hillary because he opposed the war in Iraq from the start.
Boom. His strategy is clear as a bell. He’s put Hillary in a box. She has to get 80% of the non-African-American vote or she loses.
What’s Hillary’s solution? She’s spent $169 million and hasn’t found one.
One pundit did recently speculate she and Bill do have a secret strategy. But don’t dare articulate it. They think Obama’s nomination will be a disaster for the Democratic Party. That this fall Obama will march off the left end of the earth taking the Democrats down in flames.
But Hillary’s afraid to say that because it might backfire, like Bill comparing Obama to Jesse Jackson. She doesn’t dare point to the video’s of Rev. Wright and say, ‘Look at this. Imagine what Republicans are going to do with this in November’ – because she’ll be called racist.
So, instead, we have this: Hillary and Obama both have ads on TV about gas prices.
Hillary says in her ad (answering an email from a fan), “Well, Tammie… we need to reach energy independence, and the only way we’ll do that is to stop buying oil from over there and start creating alternative, renewable energy over here.”
Compare that to Obama’s ad. He says, “I don’t take money from oil companies or Washington lobbyists, and I won’t let them block change anymore. They’ll pay a penalty for windfall profits.”
Hillary’s for something called ‘alternative energy;’ Obama’s fighting the bad guys to stop them blocking change. He’s identified the villain. In his ad – at least, politically – all the pieces fit together with razor sharp symmetry.
In North Carolina, according to a Democratic Pollster (Public Policy Polling), Obama leads Hillary by a whopping 20%. 54% to 34%. His lead is based on his overwhelming support from African-Americans, where he’s beating Hillary 81% to 10% – which means his accomplishing his goal. Do the math. He’s getting 90% of the decided African-American voters.
How’s he doing with everyone else? He trails Hillary by 16%. 51% to 35%. But he only needs 20%, so he’s exceeded his goal.
For Hillary to win, and reach 80%, she has to get every single undecided vote and also persuade 40% of the people voting for Obama to switch to her. And it’s hard to see how she does that by talking to Tammie about the virtues of alternative energy – which, of course, Obama is for too.
So Obama’s had his moment. He’s figured out, Here’s what I have to do to win. And Hillary hasn’t and that’s Hillary’s blues.
Hillary’s Blues
A political campaign, by nature, is born in chaos. Think of it this way: In twelve months Barack Obama has created the equivalent of a mammoth $200 million corporation, employing hundreds of people who’ve, mostly, never worked together before. Add to that fierce competition and you can see why most campaigns become not well-oiled machines, but out of control juggernauts.
About the best a campaign can hope for, if it ever gets its feet on the ground, is to have time to take a breath and find a way to win. And that’s not simple either. Reading the shifting sands of public opinion (the be-all and end-all of politics) can be a mystery. And charting a course can be pure blind guesswork. But, that said, in a good campaign a moment sometimes comes when you say, I get it. I know where this election is going, and the revelation is clear as a bell. You can feel the gears click into place. The juggernaut has direction.
Barack Obama has had that moment. He knows what his election – in the primary – is about. He knows where he’s going. He knows what to do to win.
Hillary, on the other hand, is befuddled.
North Carolina is a good example.
Obama – I’m guessing – has set a target to win 90-95% of the African-American vote. A goal he has repeatedly accomplished. Then, I’m guessing, he asked himself, How much of the other votes do I need to win? The answer is around 20%. Then he says, Where do I get it? And the answer is simple: White liberals who prefer him to Hillary because he opposed the war in Iraq from the start.
Boom. His strategy is clear as a bell. He’s put Hillary in a box. She has to get 80% of the non-African-American vote or she loses.
What’s Hillary’s solution? She’s spent $169 million and hasn’t found one.
One pundit did recently speculate she and Bill do have a secret strategy. But don’t dare articulate it. They think Obama’s nomination will be a disaster for the Democratic Party. That this fall Obama will march off the left end of the earth taking the Democrats down in flames.
But Hillary’s afraid to say that because it might backfire, like Bill comparing Obama to Jesse Jackson. She doesn’t dare point to the video’s of Rev. Wright and say, ‘Look at this. Imagine what Republicans are going to do with this in November’ – because she’ll be called racist.
So, instead, we have this: Hillary and Obama both have ads on TV about gas prices.
Hillary says in her ad (answering an email from a fan), “Well, Tammie… we need to reach energy independence, and the only way we’ll do that is to stop buying oil from over there and start creating alternative, renewable energy over here.”
Compare that to Obama’s ad. He says, “I don’t take money from oil companies or Washington lobbyists, and I won’t let them block change anymore. They’ll pay a penalty for windfall profits.”
Hillary’s for something called ‘alternative energy;’ Obama’s fighting the bad guys to stop them blocking change. He’s identified the villain. In his ad – at least, politically – all the pieces fit together with razor sharp symmetry.
In North Carolina, according to a Democratic Pollster (Public Policy Polling), Obama leads Hillary by a whopping 20%. 54% to 34%. His lead is based on his overwhelming support from African-Americans, where he’s beating Hillary 81% to 10% – which means his accomplishing his goal. Do the math. He’s getting 90% of the decided African-American voters.
How’s he doing with everyone else? He trails Hillary by 16%. 51% to 35%. But he only needs 20%, so he’s exceeded his goal.
For Hillary to win, and reach 80%, she has to get every single undecided vote and also persuade 40% of the people voting for Obama to switch to her. And it’s hard to see how she does that by talking to Tammie about the virtues of alternative energy – which, of course, Obama is for too.
So Obama’s had his moment. He’s figured out, Here’s what I have to do to win. And Hillary hasn’t and that’s Hillary’s blues.