One of today’s sharpest political analysts, Simon Rosenberg, has mapped out a path for Democrats to get 55% of the national popular vote in 2024, up from President Biden’s 51.4% in 2020.

And North Carolina is on Rosenberg’s map.

He was one of the few who wasn’t swept away in 2022 by the Republican/media “red wave” myth. He predicted that Democrats who ran hard on abortion and democracy would win.

He wrote this month:

“From Tel Aviv to Nashville to Disney to Wisconsin, we are seeing something important happen – a growing willingness to say no to MAGA….

“This awareness that they have just gone too far, and it needs to stop, is part of what drove our remarkable victory in Wisconsin this past week. We got to 55% statewide, that magic number, something I think we need to shoot for nationally in 2024.

“The premise of my ‘Get to 55’ idea is that MAGA’s escalating extremism and awfulness is giving Democrats and pro-democracy forces an opportunity to go big, expand our coalition, grow demographically and geographically, and rout them next year – as we just did in WI, and as we did in many key battleground states in this past election.”

In the short term, he argues, Democrats should grow their coalition with four groups: “Under 45-year-old voters, Hispanics, Never-MAGA Republicans and those whose political views have or can be changed due to Republican extremism on abortion.”

And, he said, Democrats may get more Asian American Pacific Islander voters, African-American voters in Southern states and voters in small towns and rural communities. 

I asked Rosenberg about North Carolina. He said, “There is no more important expansion opportunity for Democrats this cycle than North Carolina. We have to take what we’ve learned in flipping Arizona and Georgia and bring it to North Carolina.”

Rosenberg is on Twitter @SimonWDC, and he blogs at the Hopium (“hope and optimism”) Chronicles, www.simonwdc.substack.com.