Gary’s Election Scorecard
So how did I do on my 10 election predictions? Right on four and a half. Wrong on two (happily wrong on one of those). And we’re still counting the votes on three and a half. So I’m hoping I come up 8-2.
My predictions from yesterday and the results:
- Democrats sweep nationally. It’s the war, stupid. (Listen up, Mr. President.)
That turned out right. It was
- Democrats take Congress. We pick up 30
Half right so far, and the Senate is still in play as I write this.
- Webb wins
Maybe right. They’re still counting, but Allen has fumbled the ball every time he’s had it this election. His father is tossing in his grave.
- But Ford loses in
Right again, regrettably.
- Democrats keep N.C. legislature. A no-brainer. Look at our financial edge in the N&O’s outstanding graphic today.
Right. We did more than keep it. We increased our margins.
- Jim Black survives. As a member of the House, not Speaker.
Maybe right. Still counting the votes in his district. But scandals hurt here just like they did all over the country.
- Dems take Wake. We win majority on the county commissioners. Here come impact fees!
Wrong. We picked up a seat, but the board is still 4-3 Republican. Why did Republicans win when school bonds also win? Because the Republicans were smart enough to portray themselves as pro-education. They’d better walk the walk now.
- Heath Shuler wins. Can Democrats make room in the tent for pro-life and pro-gun candidates? Yes, if we want to win in 2008. (Robin Hayes and Brad Miller also win.)
Right on all three races. And for the next two years, I will use Heath Shuler’s victory to argue to my Democratic friends around the country that we can’t concede the South. Based on yesterday’s results, the Democratic Party is far more of a national party today than the Republicans. And Hayes barely won despite a huge spending advantage.
- School bonds lose. My heart makes me hope the Democratic tide will help. But my head says the combination of anti-tax and anti-mandatory year round is too much to overcome.
Wrong again, happily. It will be a long time before I believe Mason-Dixon polls. Memo to the N&O: review that contract.
- Voter confidence loses. With no exit polls until 5 pm, cable spends all day hyping alleged irregularities, fraud and voter intimidation. What happens when Americans no longer trust the vote count?
Right or wrong? Fortunately, there were no disasters. But maybe that was only because it was a landslide and there was no Presidential race. These problems, like most things in life, are probably the result of incompetence rather than a conspiracy. How can you expect a bunch of old geezers like us to operate 21st century voting equipment? The answer: teenaged poll workers.
To comment, send us an email to comment@talkingaboutpolitics.com.
Gary’s Election Scorecard
So how did I do on my 10 election predictions? Right on four and a half. Wrong on two (happily wrong on one of those). And we’re still counting the votes on three and a half. So I’m hoping I come up 8-2.
My predictions from yesterday and the results:
- Democrats sweep nationally. It’s the war, stupid. (Listen up, Mr. President.)
That turned out right. It was
- Democrats take Congress. We pick up 30
Half right so far, and the Senate is still in play as I write this.
- Webb wins
Maybe right. They’re still counting, but Allen has fumbled the ball every time he’s had it this election. His father is tossing in his grave.
- But Ford loses in
Right again, regrettably.
- Democrats keep N.C. legislature. A no-brainer. Look at our financial edge in the N&O’s outstanding graphic today.
Right. We did more than keep it. We increased our margins.
- Jim Black survives. As a member of the House, not Speaker.
Maybe right. Still counting the votes in his district. But scandals hurt here just like they did all over the country.
- Dems take Wake. We win majority on the county commissioners. Here come impact fees!
Wrong. We picked up a seat, but the board is still 4-3 Republican. Why did Republicans win when school bonds also win? Because the Republicans were smart enough to portray themselves as pro-education. They’d better walk the walk now.
- Heath Shuler wins. Can Democrats make room in the tent for pro-life and pro-gun candidates? Yes, if we want to win in 2008. (Robin Hayes and Brad Miller also win.)
Right on all three races. And for the next two years, I will use Heath Shuler’s victory to argue to my Democratic friends around the country that we can’t concede the South. Based on yesterday’s results, the Democratic Party is far more of a national party today than the Republicans. And Hayes barely won despite a huge spending advantage.
- School bonds lose. My heart makes me hope the Democratic tide will help. But my head says the combination of anti-tax and anti-mandatory year round is too much to overcome.
Wrong again, happily. It will be a long time before I believe Mason-Dixon polls. Memo to the N&O: review that contract.
- Voter confidence loses. With no exit polls until 5 pm, cable spends all day hyping alleged irregularities, fraud and voter intimidation. What happens when Americans no longer trust the vote count?
Right or wrong? Fortunately, there were no disasters. But maybe that was only because it was a landslide and there was no Presidential race. These problems, like most things in life, are probably the result of incompetence rather than a conspiracy. How can you expect a bunch of old geezers like us to operate 21st century voting equipment? The answer: teenaged poll workers.
To comment, send us an email to comment@talkingaboutpolitics.com.