An aging President faces questions about his fitness for a second term.

His poll numbers are discouraging.

Americans are down on the economy.

The opposing party smells blood.

Joe Biden in 2023?

Maybe. But also, Ronald Reagan in 1983, 40 years ago.

Then, things changed. In 1984, a Reagan-Republican rout reshaped politics for decades to come – and converted a generation of young voters to conservative Republicans.

What happened?

As always, campaigns mattered, events intruded, and crises and opportunities arose which the candidates and campaigns had to meet.

The economy got better, and people felt better.

Reagan’s campaign came up with a great message:

“It’s morning again in America. Today more men and women will go to work than ever before in our country’s history…. Under the leadership of President Reagan, our country is prouder and stronger and better. Why would we ever want to return to where we were less than four short years ago?”

After stumbling and stammering through the first debate, Reagan squelched doubts with a memorable quip in the next debate:

“I will not make age an issue of this campaign. I am not going to exploit, for political purposes, my opponent’s youth and inexperience.”

Even Walter Mondale, his hapless opponent, had to laugh.

Mondale’s nomination was Democrats’ gift to Reagan. As Jimmy Carter’s Vice President, he personified the past, “where we were less than four short years ago.”

Democrats panicking over today’s polls should take a chill pill.

Polls 14 months out are a referendum on the incumbent. They may show Biden’s floor – and Trump’s ceiling. The election will be a choice, not a wish.

But Biden will have to rise to the occasion and answer the age questions. His campaign better be good. Democrats better work hard.

And maybe, just maybe, Republicans will give them the gift of a weak opponent.

Like, say, a convicted felon and congenital liar who tried to overturn an election to stay in power.