The Gallop organization has taken a poll about the impact of the Foley scandal on the election. Dick Morris writes on his website Vote.com that it shows “the Republican base…has moved out.”

“The Gallup poll of Oct. 6-8 shows that, in the wake of the Foley scandal, the number of “white frequent churchgoers” who are planning to vote Republican has dropped from 58 percent to 47 percent since last month. The margin of their support for Republicans over Democrats, 26 percentage points in September, has entirely disappeared and the parties are tied among this core element of the Republican base.

“The Gallup poll also reveals that Democrats now win all eight major issues, including terrorism and morality. Asked which party would do more to enhance “moral standards in the country,” Democrats now win 47 to 36! And on terrorism, Democrats now have a 47-to-42-percent advantage.

“The Foley scandal has wrought extraordinary damage to the Republican Party and appears to have had a particularly negative impact …churchgoing whites are the core of the Republican base. The fact that they are now breaking even in the approaching midterm elections foretells total disaster for the GOP.”

“With this kind of defection, Republican Sens. Mike DeWine (Ohio), Conrad Burns (Mont.), Rick Santorum (Pa.), Jim Talent (Mo.) and Lincoln Chaffee (R.I.) seem likely to be gone. Senate Majority Leader Bill Frist’s (R-Tenn.) seat seems likely to go to Rep. Harold Ford (D-Tenn.). And Sen. George Allen (R-Va.) may also be on his way out. In New Jersey, after trailing Tom Kean Jr. for most of September, Sen. Robert Menendez (D) seems to have moved out to a small lead that will probably grow.”

One more complication: When the scandal broke House Speaker Dennis Hastert told the press he only learned of Foley’s instant messages to pages last month. But, now, the newspapers report House Majority Leader John Boehner says he discussed “the Foley situation” with the Speaker last spring. (News and Observer; 10-19-06)

About once each decade (1974, 1982, 1994), there seems to be a ‘tidal wave’ election when voters decisively favor one party (or where the base voters for one party simply stay home). Republican pollsters and strategists have been afraid for months that would happen this election. Morris’ conclusion seems to confirm their fears. He says the Gallop poll is a sign of “a midterm disaster for the Republican Party.”

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