Dole’s Dilemma
Talk about a dangerous place to be – how about Sunset Beach last weekend with the Trial Lawyers in town holding their annual convention – you could get sued for using the wrong fork at dinner.
That aside, it’s a safe bet Congressman Brad Miller didn’t drive 200 miles to the beach just to sit down with his trial lawyer contributors to tell them he’s not going to run against Liddy Dole. It’s hard to see Miller – who’s hardly a ball of fire – running the kind of brilliant, stellar campaign needed to defeat an incumbent with more money and more popularity than he brings to the race. Miller is a viable candidate but Senator Dole’s real problems lie elsewhere.
Every candidate’s nightmare is the things that happen in an election he or she can’t control. Let me give an example. In 1982 Bill Cobey ran for Congress in Raleigh. Bill ran an almost flawless campaign. He started out thirty points behind. Raised more money than his opponent. And pulled even by October 1st. Then the gods of campaigns handed him a gift. His opponent, Congressman Ike Andrews, was arrested for drunk driving. The next poll showed Bill ahead 15 points. Then on election day a Democratic tidal wave hit. Every Republican challenger in the nation but one lost. And Bill lost by 300 votes. And there was nothing he could do about the national trend that defeated him. He couldn’t change it. Or escape it.
President Bush’s job approval today – 29% – is a lot lower than President Reagan’s was in 1982. It’s lower than it was last fall when Democrats swept the election. Bush’s popularity may turn around by next November. But it may not. And there’s not much Senator Dole can do about it one way or the other. She may find herself in the same trap as Bill Cobey. She can work day and night and do all the things it takes – and do them better than Brad Miller or whoever his opponent ends up being – to win, then whoosh, the tsunami hits and none of it matters.
That’s Dole’s dilemma.
Click Here to discuss and comment on this and other articles.
Dole’s Dilemma
Talk about a dangerous place to be – how about Sunset Beach last weekend with the Trial Lawyers in town holding their annual convention – you could get sued for using the wrong fork at dinner.
That aside, it’s a safe bet Congressman Brad Miller didn’t drive 200 miles to the beach just to sit down with his trial lawyer contributors to tell them he’s not going to run against Liddy Dole. It’s hard to see Miller – who’s hardly a ball of fire – running the kind of brilliant, stellar campaign needed to defeat an incumbent with more money and more popularity than he brings to the race. Miller is a viable candidate but Senator Dole’s real problems lie elsewhere.
Every candidate’s nightmare is the things that happen in an election he or she can’t control. Let me give an example. In 1982 Bill Cobey ran for Congress in Raleigh. Bill ran an almost flawless campaign. He started out thirty points behind. Raised more money than his opponent. And pulled even by October 1st. Then the gods of campaigns handed him a gift. His opponent, Congressman Ike Andrews, was arrested for drunk driving. The next poll showed Bill ahead 15 points. Then on election day a Democratic tidal wave hit. Every Republican challenger in the nation but one lost. And Bill lost by 300 votes. And there was nothing he could do about the national trend that defeated him. He couldn’t change it. Or escape it.
President Bush’s job approval today – 29% – is a lot lower than President Reagan’s was in 1982. It’s lower than it was last fall when Democrats swept the election. Bush’s popularity may turn around by next November. But it may not. And there’s not much Senator Dole can do about it one way or the other. She may find herself in the same trap as Bill Cobey. She can work day and night and do all the things it takes – and do them better than Brad Miller or whoever his opponent ends up being – to win, then whoosh, the tsunami hits and none of it matters.
That’s Dole’s dilemma.
Click Here to discuss and comment on this and other articles.