Talking heads pay attention to what candidates say in debates. Voters pay attention to who they are. That is why instant debate analysis often misses what is important – and why it takes time for opinions to jell.

Sarah Palin got good instant reviews last week. But she left a bad impression: snarky. She may be real, but she’s real unprepared.

Voters watch debates for magic moments when they can see what a candidate is really like: Joe Biden choking up talking about losing his wife, daughter and almost his sons.

In the 2000 debates George Bush looked like a regular guy beside the robotic Al Gore. In 2004 Bush looked strong beside ever-equivocating John Kerry.

In 1992’s town-hall debate, like tonight’s, George Bush the Elder looked at his watch and looked like he’d rather be anywhere than talking to real people. Bill Clinton looked like he cared. Ross Perot looked nuts.

John McCain has the problem Bob Dole had in 1996. He looks like an angry old man. When he smiles, he looks like it hurts. When he makes a joke, he looks mean.

So he’s going to have a hard time carrying out his new strategy: turning the page on the economy and turning a blowtorch on Obama.

Obama has the easier job: Stay cool, talk about people hurting financially and parry McCain’s attacks.

The race is moving Obama’s way because voters’ impressions are hardening about both candidates. Voters want calm change, not temper tantrums.

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