Blue NC?

Kamala Harris rode a post-debate wave into North Carolina last week. The media should stop asking if she can win the state. Clearly, she can. Even before the debate, polls showed her leading Trump here 49-46. Last March, Trump led President Biden by 5. An eight-point swing is huge in today’s polarized electorate. Then there’s…

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Better Days

On stage at his rally in Erie, Pennsylvania, angry, lips set, tearing into Kamala Harris, J. D. Vance snapped, ‘She can go to hell.’ Meantime, over on Truth Social, Trump retweeted a meme showing Harris standing beside Hillary Clinton, above the line ‘Funny how blowjobs impacted both their careers differently.’ Most of us remember the…

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Do TV Ads Work?

Josh Stein’s ads about Mark Robinson certainly worked. They worked because they defined Robinson early in the race and because they used the most devastating weapon in politics: Robinson himself on camera saying, “abortion in this country’s not about protecting the lives of mothers – it’s about killing a child because you weren’t responsible enough…

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Mark Robinson’s Slipping

After Mark Robinson announced for governor, he led Josh Stein in polls. Then Stein pulled even. Then Robinson trailed by five. In a poll last week Robinson trailed by fourteen. Some folks say the problem’s Robinson’s stand on abortion. And, yes, that could hurt him. But when Congressman George Holding got attacked by Democrats for…

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Roy Raises the Roof

I’m old enough to remember when Democrats worried that Roy Cooper wasn’t a strong public speaker. Then there he was Thursday night: in the spotlight at the Democratic National Convention, the final speaker before Kamala Harris. He gave a rousing five-minute speech that brought the crowd roaring to its feet. He told how Harris, as…

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More Silly Politics

Just before the election in October of 2008, sitting in my office pollster John McLaughlin opened a poll, said Obama was leading John McCain in North Carolina. No Democrat had won a presidential election in North Carolina in decades. No black man had ever won a statewide race for senator or governor. I shook my…

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Mark Robinson Lite

The last thing Josh Stein would need as governor is another Mark Robinson as lieutenant governor. That’s why state Senator Rachel Hunt’s race for lieutenant governor matters. Big time. Hunt’s opponent, Hal Weatherman, is a political lightweight – Mark Robinson Lite. He’s such a lightweight you could call him “Featherman.” He has never held public…

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Two Different Worlds

The other day on TV a mother wearing a long white sweater sitting beside her dining room table talked about her son dying of a fentanyl overdose – then said she typically voted Republican but this time ‘Josh Stein is who I want to be governor.’ The same day in a video on Facebook, waving…

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Learning From Mistakes

Raising more money, making stronger ads, Republicans once had an edge over Democrats in elections. But, of course, over time Democrats learned from their mistakes. Kamala Harris just raised $200 million in one week – no Republican’s done that. For years Republicans’ flashy ads full of melodrama worked but voters have now seen so many…

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The Ground Beneath Trump’s Feet

Winds change and without warning politics changes: In 1980 Reagan and Carter were running neck and neck ten days before the election – winds changed, Reagan won 44 states. Sitting in my office ten years later during Jesse Helms’ Senate campaign our pollster pointed to one question in his poll: 80% of the voters disagreed…

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