Cantor’s Pollster Explains

Great glee erupted among Democrats over Eric Cantor’s defeat – and also over the embarrassment to his pollster, who had predicted a landslide Cantor win. Cantor’s pollster is John McLaughlin of New York, a Republican with whom I’ve worked on non-partisan projects. Full disclosure: I like John personally, and I greatly respect him professionally.  …

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Gerrymandering and Immigration and the GOP

Eric Cantor’s defeat, immigration reform, gerrymandering and Republican presidential hopes all got rolled up together last week in a classic demonstration of the Law of Unintended Consequences.   Cantor’s opponent, David Brat (I love that name), attacked him for being soft on immigrants. That struck fear in the hearts of other Republicans in Congress. That…

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Mississippi

The unexpected almost always happens – but who’d have expected this: Down in Mississippi the Tea Party has been battling it out with the Republican Establishment, trying to whip Senator Thad Cochran and when all the votes were counted the Tea Party candidate led Cochrane by an eyelash 49.6% to 49%.    The surprise?  …

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Smart Voters

Everybody has a theory about why Eric Cantor lost, one that usually reflects their overall theory about politics: It was about immigration. Cantor was aloof and arrogant. The Tea Party is still a force in the GOP. Voters lie to pollsters. Pollsters are stupid. Let’s consider another possible factor, one that echoes last month’s primaries…

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Picking Winners and Losers

Everybody knows Republicans, and especially conservative Republicans, don’t like government subsidies. They’re corporate welfare. They’re government picking winners and losers.  And interfering with the free marketplace.    That’s why Republicans opposed Obama’s solar energy subsidies like Solyandro – a solar business ought to be able to stand on its own two feet and if it…

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Tempting Women

According to the newspaper one super powerful group is going to pick the winner in the Senate race: Women.    Not money. Or virtue. Or sin. But Women.   Which, of course, if you’re a woman, may sound like floozy flattery.    Or if you’re a woman, and a tad skeptical, you might be wondering,…

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An Issue from the East

Gary is taking a break from blogging. Here’s a guest blog from Joe Stewart, Executive Director of the NC FreeEnterprise Foundation; a nonpartisan non-profit organization that conducts research on candidates, campaigns and voter attitudes in North Carolina. Once the match up in the US Senate race was known on primary election night, a reporter asked…

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One Honest Man Getting Shot from Both Sides

Years ago a Democratic gnome sitting in a cloister pouring over reams of polls and demographics had a profound revelation: Most of the people who didn’t vote were Democrats. The word spread from gnome to pollster to politicians where it led to scads of mischief (all dressed in the trappings of government) as Democrats passed…

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One Kind of Thinking

There’s been a lot of political foolishness going on over in Greensboro and I’ve been watching it pretty closely, working with one of Phil Berger Jr.’s opponents in the Republican Primary, Bruce VonCannon. The other day Berger’s Super PAC broke bad and issued an edict: Voters, they said, ought not to trust Bruce VonCannon to…

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Rethinking Koch

Maybe the attack-Koch strategy is a good idea after all. I had questions, but I’m coming around.   Every story needs a villain. That lesson is as old as the Bible. (See: the Serpent, Garden of Eden.)   Just as Republicans here want to make William Barber of the NAACP the face of the Democratic…

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