Burr at Year End
January 4, 2010 - by
Back when Lauch Faircoth was running for Senate the first time ole’ Tom Ellis launched the campaign two years before the election and he had a good reason – the first time he took a poll and looked at the political chessboard what the pieces said back to him loud and clear was Lauch was going to lose.
Lauch was behind both Charlotte Mayor Sue Myrick and Greensboro Congressman Gene Johnston in the Republican Primary.
So right off Mr. Ellis went to running television ads then got what he thought was a break – because neither Sue and Gene did anything. For a year, Mr. Ellis had a free hand to rearrange the pieces on that chessboard and the result was simple: By fall Lauch was ahead of Sue and Gene and instead of facing a campaign he’d probably lose he was facing one he’d almost surely win.
Tom Ellis did pretty much the same thing in Jesse Helms’ campaigns in 1978, 1984 and 1990.
But, then, Lauch changed the formula when he ran for reelection in 1998 and held onto his money to pay for ads at the end of the campaign – which left Gary free to rearrange the political chessboard for John Edwards.
I don’t understand why Republican candidates today – especially incumbents like Richard Burr who could easily outspend their opponents early in the campaign – have forgotten what Tom Ellis figured out twenty years ago.
Burr – like Faircloth in 1998 – is a weak incumbent. He had time and cold hard cash and a free hand to rearrange the chessboard but didn’t – rather than making it harder for the Democrats to defeat him he’s given them a gift. He’s as weak today as he was a year ago. The opportunity’s missed. The year’s lost. And Burr can’t get it back.
Posted in General, North Carolina - Republicans
Burr at Year End
January 4, 2010/
Back when Lauch Faircoth was running for Senate the first time ole’ Tom Ellis launched the campaign two years before the election and he had a good reason – the first time he took a poll and looked at the political chessboard what the pieces said back to him loud and clear was Lauch was going to lose.
Lauch was behind both Charlotte Mayor Sue Myrick and Greensboro Congressman Gene Johnston in the Republican Primary.
So right off Mr. Ellis went to running television ads then got what he thought was a break – because neither Sue and Gene did anything. For a year, Mr. Ellis had a free hand to rearrange the pieces on that chessboard and the result was simple: By fall Lauch was ahead of Sue and Gene and instead of facing a campaign he’d probably lose he was facing one he’d almost surely win.
Tom Ellis did pretty much the same thing in Jesse Helms’ campaigns in 1978, 1984 and 1990.
But, then, Lauch changed the formula when he ran for reelection in 1998 and held onto his money to pay for ads at the end of the campaign – which left Gary free to rearrange the political chessboard for John Edwards.
I don’t understand why Republican candidates today – especially incumbents like Richard Burr who could easily outspend their opponents early in the campaign – have forgotten what Tom Ellis figured out twenty years ago.
Burr – like Faircloth in 1998 – is a weak incumbent. He had time and cold hard cash and a free hand to rearrange the chessboard but didn’t – rather than making it harder for the Democrats to defeat him he’s given them a gift. He’s as weak today as he was a year ago. The opportunity’s missed. The year’s lost. And Burr can’t get it back.
Posted in General, North Carolina - Republicans