The first time I ever laid eyes on a ‘blue-moon’ election was thirty-six years ago, after Ronald Reagan was elected. What’s a blue moon election? It’s the first election after a new President takes office, when there’s not a Senator or Governor on the ballot running statewide.

Back in 1982, Jesse Helms’ political organization had won three straight elections. So, we did the same things that had worked before. And we lost every race. What had changed?

The next blue moon election was 12 years later, after Bill Clinton was elected. This time the blue moon smiled on the Republicans – who defeated so many Democrats they won a majority in the State House and won four Democratic Congressional seats. Republican candidates who’d been running and losing for years suddenly won. What had changed?

The blue moon didn’t return until 2010, after President Obama was elected. And, again, it favored Republicans who – after a century of trying and failing – suddenly won majorities in both the State Senate and State House. How did that happen?

There were the same three trends in each election. In 1982 they worked for Democrats; in 1994 and 2010 they elected Republicans.

Let’s look at 2010: President Obama was unpopular which meant angry Republicans voted in droves, disappointed Democrats stayed home, and unhappy Independents voted for Republicans to send Democrats a message. There’re a dozen explanations for why those three trends occurred but, whichever explanation is right, those were the trends that determined the outcome of the election.

Now, eight years later, the blue moon is back and it looks like history (and the same three trends) is repeating itself – only in reverse. This time, the blue moon is shining on the Democrats.

Take Congressman George Holding’s race. By voter registration George’s district is 35% Republican, 35% Democratic and 30% Independent. But that’s misleading because one group of Democrats, rural conservatives, almost always vote for a Conservative Republican – which gives a Republican a four or five-point advantage. Let’s call it 37% Republican to 33% Democratic.

Now let’s do some math: That four-point advantage means if 45% of the Independents vote for George Holding he wins. In the last three elections, in 2012, 2014, and 2016, when Independents disapproved of the job Obama was doing, George received over 60% of the Independents’ votes and won each election with almost 57% of the total vote.

But that happened in a political world where Obama was in the White House. And now, that political world no longer exists. And a new world has taken its place.

Last fall, when we took the first poll in George’s 2018 campaign we got a picture of that new world. When we asked the standard ‘Generic Ballot’ question – In the election for Congress were today, would you vote for the Republican or the Democratic candidate – the ‘Generic’ Democrat candidate who should have trailed by four or five points was tied with the Republican candidate.

We took another poll in March and another in July, and in July, for the first time, George trailed his Democratic opponent by three points with 15% of the voters undecided. What had changed? Liberal and African-American Democrats, angry at Trump, were voting more heavily than Republicans. And Independents, who were unhappy with Trump, were voting for Democrats – to send Republicans a message. Those three trends echo the trends in the other blue moon elections.

Today a lot of Republicans in North Carolina, after winning four elections when Obama was President, are looking at the 2018 election the same way they looked at the 2010, 2012, 2014 and 2016 elections. They believe this election is no different from those four elections. But the political world isn’t made of stone. It changes.

What can a Republican candidate do when the blue moon is shining on Democrats?

To be continued…