Two years ago, just before the election, when early voting started, a surprising trend appeared out of thin air. Fewer African-American Democrats were voting than had voted in the 2012 Presidential election. And the impact was profound.

Before the 2016 election polls showed Richard Burr running even with, or a couple points ahead of, Democrat Deborah Ross; and Pat McCrory was trailing Roy Cooper by four to five points. On election day, when fewer African-American Democrats voted, Burr’s lead rose to 6 points and Pat McCrory came within a whisker of defeating Roy Cooper.

This year in a poll when you ask, This election, will you definitely vote, are you very likely to vote, or only somewhat likely to vote? more African-American Democrats and liberal Democrats are going to ‘definitely vote’ than either Republicans or Independents.

What caused that change?

It’s hard to tell. But that’s not unusual in a blue moon election after a new President settles into the White House.

Why Liberal Democrats are more likely to vote is easy to understand: Every time Trump tweets they get overheated.

Why are African-American Democrats voting heavier? That’s probably, or partly, Trump too. But there may be more to the story. I didn’t think much of the Charlottesville protests when they happened a year ago but looking back I can see how Trump may have crossed a Rubicon with African-American Democrats when he failed to condemn what CNN called ‘White Nationalist’ protestors.

And what about Republicans? Republicans overwhelmingly approve of President Trump but, below the surface, there is ambivalence: One group of Republicans – the strongest Trump supporters – approve of both Trump’s personality and his policies, while another group approves of his policies but not his personality.

Complicating that picture, in a poll when you ask, Do you approve or disapprove of the job the Republicans in Congress are doing, many Republicans answer ‘Disapprove.’ It turns out Republicans dislike the swamp more than Democrats and, for more than a few Republicans, the swamp includes the Republican leadership in Congress.

Why does that matter?

It means one group of strongly pro-Trump Republicans may be looking at this election, thinking, I’m 100% for Trump but I don’t really like the Republican leaders in Congress. Will they vote this election when Trump’s not on the ballot?

And the other group of Republicans, the Ambivalents, may be thinking, I have mixed feelings about Trump and I don’t like the job the Republicans in Congress are doing. They may be even less likely to vote.

And that may explain why a liberal Democrat is more likely to vote than a conservative Republican this election.

That’s four turnout trends – Liberal Democrats (up), African-American Democrats (up), pro-Trump Republicans who don’t like the Republicans in Congress (maybe down), and Ambivalents (maybe down) – that favor Democrats.

What does that mean?

Let’s take another look at George Holding’s race. Last election, George won by 57% to 43%. A four-point increase in Democrat turnout and a four-point drop in Republican turnout turns this election into a six-point race – 53% to 47%. But George only has a six-point lead because those numbers include the Independents who voted for him overwhelmingly last election. But, now, half the Independents disapprove of the job Trump is doing. What if they vote for George’s opponent? His race turns into a toss-up.

So, for Republicans, is there a solution? With so many different problems there’s not a simple solution. But there’s one answer that works across the board.

To be continued…