The next time you look up tenacity in the dictionary you may see House Speaker Jim Black’s picture beside the word. Black’s been hauled before the Board of Elections, the Grand Jury, the federal courts and his nominee for the lottery commission was convicted of fraud but, despite it all, as improbable as it sounds, he has a fifth term as Speaker within his grasp.

Usually, by now, the Democrats in the State House have caucused and selected their choice for Speaker. This year they haven’t. Why not? Democratic legislators say they are waiting to see if Black is indicted. But, instead, the delay is proof of something else: Black doesn’t yet have the votes to win a fifth term, but he is working on it. He postponed the caucus to give himself a little more time and, you can bet, when he does have the votes he’ll hold the caucus in a heartbeat.

Oddly, Black’s opponents – there are seven of them – seem content to wait too. Of course they hope the U.S. Attorney will indict Black and save them the ordeal of battling him. But the other reason is ironic: They fear if they attack Black for the scandals, when he is indicted he will throw his block of votes to someone else. So, at least in the short term in an odd way the prospect of getting indicted is keeping Black’s opponents off-balance. Only one, former Speaker Dan Blue, is even remotely talking about corruption and he is doing it with kid gloves, speaking generically of the need for ‘reform’ but not mentioning Black’s role in the scandals.

It’s an odd type of chemistry. If Black’s indicted he’s out. But if there’s only the prospect of his being indicted it’s his opponents who are stymied. With Speaker Pro-Tem Richard Morgan yet to testify before the Grand Jury it seems less than likely the U.S. Attorney will decide whether or not to indict Black by January, when the legislature returns. So the odds look better than even that Jim Black wins a fifth term.

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