So here’s my opinion, for what it’s worth.

Just naturally, candidates like to believe their virtues – their speeches and stands and ads – are what get them elected. But this poll says, loud and clear, here in North Carolina that’s not exactly so.

Why is someone voting for Pat McCrory or Bev Perdue?

It turns out most times for the same reason: President Bush. If you’re one of the 41% of the people who like President Bush, you’re almost surely to be voting for Pat McCrory – and John McCain and Elizabeth Dole.

And if you’re one of 48% who dislike President Bush, you’re almost surely voting for Perdue and Obama and McCain – with the exception of one group of voters.

Now, at first blush, that sounds like good news for the Democrats but – as always – the gods of politics have thrown a wrinkle into the equation.

Part of the 48% who are unfavorable to President Bush – 6 points of the 48 to be exact – are Republicans and when it comes to voting they’re not about to pull a lever for Obama, Hagan or Perdue.

So when it comes to how people vote, they anti-Bush vote isn’t quite the gorilla Democrats hoped for – at least in North Carolina

There’s also more bad news for Democrats.

Among White Democratic voters – who are 27% of the electorate – a surprising thing happens. Even after the war in Iraq, the economic meltdown, and years of howling by Bush’s critics, the remnant of conservative Democrats – 7 out of the 27 – are still favorable to George Bush and almost to a man (or woman) they vote for John McCain, Elizabeth Dole and Pat McCrory.

That seven percent of the voters may be the last gasp of the old Jessecrats – but there’s just enough gas in that tank to have a profound impact on the election. That 7% is one big reason John McCain leads Barack Obama in North Carolina:

John McCain 48%

Barack Obama 44%

Bob Barr 1%

Undecided 7%

Now, for the second wrinkle: Who on earth are those undecided voters? Here’re two facts about them: They like John McCain better than Barack Obama:

McCain Obama

Favorable 60 47

Unfavorable 20 33

That’s good news for McCain. But here’s good some news for Obama: Those same undecided voters also dislike President Bush:

George Bush

Favorable 33

Unfavorable 47

So McCain is saying, ‘Obama, I’m not George Bush,’ and Obama’s running an ad saying McCain voted with President Bush 90% of the time – but that leaves Obama with one problem: Even if every undecided voter who is unfavorable to President Bush votes for him – he loses.

By around 52% to 48%.

Here’s the Democrats’ basic problem: A few miles up the road in Virginia President Bush is ten points more unpopular than he is here in North Carolina – and in Virginia Obama leads. But once you cross the border into North Carolina you enter a different world politically.

So, to win here, Obama needs six out of every seven undecided votes – a whopping 85% – and it’s hard to see how he gets them. Unless there’s a sort of October surprise in reverse – which drives up President Bush’s unpopularity. Otherwise, McCain’s on solid ground in North Carolina.

Tomorrow…the Governor’s Race.