North Carolina Democrats have reason to be optimistic about this election. But the ghosts of 2016 and 2020 keep us scared.

Both years, our hopes were high.

In 2016, Hillary Clinton’s campaign was so optimistic about North Carolina that she held an election-night rally in Raleigh’s Reynolds Coliseum. Notwithstanding performances by Lady Gaga and Jon Bon Jovi, she lost the state – and the presidency.

In October 2020, Democrats were rocking along strong – hoping to elect Cal Cunningham Senator, carry the state for Joe Biden and pick up some legislative seats.

Then Cunningham’s sex scandal broke. You could feel the air go out of Democrats’ high hopes. Cunningham lost, Biden lost by 1.5 points and Cherie Beasley lost the race for Chief Justice – and Democrats lost the Supreme Court – by just 400 votes.

This year, our hopes are high again. So are our PTSD levels

Thomas Mills summed up the case for optimism at PoliticsNC:

“Harris has run a solid campaign with almost no mistakes. She’s methodically consolidated her base and is now reaching out to late deciders and supporters who might stay home. I think Black voters and younger people will come out in larger numbers to support her this year than came out for Biden four years ago. Women will support Harris in record numbers and their turnout will outpace expectations. Hispanic and Latino voters who may have flirted with Trump will come home to the Democrats after Trump’s threats and dark vision of a largely white America. Finally, I don’t think Trump has room for growth and I think he will lose support from country club Republicans who held their noses and voted for him in 2020.”

Carolina Forward sees encouraging generational and geographic trends:

“Compared to 2020, the proportion of voters from the Silent and Baby Boomer generations has declined as a share of the whole, while Gen-Z and Millennial voters have gained significant ground. While older voters famously have higher voter turnout than younger ones, the sheer numerical shift means we’ll see fewer of them overall in 2024.

“Along with this generational shift, a geographic one is happening too. Urban voters will make up about 6% more of the electorate compared to 2020, while suburban voters – still the largest bloc at nearly half the electorate – will decrease by about 5%. Perhaps most striking is the continued decline of rural voting power: rural voters will make up under 20% of North Carolina’s electorate in 2024, a 3% drop from 2020. Along with this generational shift, a geographic one is happening too. Urban voters will make up about 6% more of the electorate compared to 2020, while suburban voters – still the largest bloc at nearly half the electorate – will decrease by about 5%. Perhaps most striking is the continued decline of rural voting power: rural voters will make up under 20% of North Carolina’s electorate in 2024, a 3% drop from 2020.”

I’m hopeful, too.

I’m hopeful that America is ready to turn the page on Donald Trump.

I’m hopeful because we have so many good candidates.

I’m hopeful because of the work Anderson Clayton and her state-party team have been doing on the ground for nearly two years.

But hope isn’t a strategy.

Hard work is.

On Friday, when my son James and I were in Berkeley for the State-Cal football game, I met Rosie – “I’m 80 but I still like to be called Rosie” – carrying a sign on campus offering to help undergraduates who live in swing states vote at home by mail.

We were walking across the busy campus. Students were heading to and from class. Parents and alumni were milling around for homecoming events and tours.

Then, near Sproul Hall and the site of the 1964 Free Speech Movement, we saw Rosie. Five feet tall and feisty, with a friendly smile for everyone, she was walking determinedly back and forth with her sign.

I had to stop, talk and get a picture.

She’d been on her one-woman voter-turnout mission for two weeks, and she had helped several students – including from Georgia and North Carolina – cast their ballots.

California is a safe Democratic state. And Berkeley is the most liberal of places.

But Rosie found a way to make a difference this year.

So, let’s stop poll-fretting, doomscrolling and media-obsessing.

Let’s be like Rosie.