America’s “Most Vulnerable”
February 8, 2011 - by
WRAL’s Cullen Browder reported last night that Governor Perdue “shrugged off” a Washington Post’s blog that she’s the most vulnerable Democratic governor in the country.
She has two good reasons to do so: the legislature and Barack Obama.
Her reelection chances won’t really come into focus until we clear the carnage and count casualties after this legislative session – and know how popular Obama will be in North Carolina
A historical footnote: Every North Carolinian who has run for reelection has won. Of course, that’s only three – Jim Hunt, Jim Martin and Mike Easley. And all three had the good fortune to run when economic times were good.
Which is another X Factor: whether people feel next year that the economy is coming back.
Browder, who interviewed me for his story, asked whether Perdue might face a primary challenge. Some Democratic liberals hint darkly at that, and ex-Senate candidate Ken Lewis has been mentioned.
But intra-party challenges to an incumbent are a slow-motion suicide. Think Jimmy Carter and Ted Kennedy in 1980.
Another historical footnote: Jim Hunt had a primary challenge in 1980, when he was the first governor to run for reelection. That was Bob Scott, who got trounced because he seemed to be running out of personal pique, not policy or principle. Ideological challenges are the killers.
The primary fight may be on the Republican side. Some conservative Republicans talk about Paul Coble challenging Patrick McCrory, who they say is too moderate.
America’s “Most Vulnerable”
February 8, 2011/
WRAL’s Cullen Browder reported last night that Governor Perdue “shrugged off” a Washington Post’s blog that she’s the most vulnerable Democratic governor in the country.
She has two good reasons to do so: the legislature and Barack Obama.
Her reelection chances won’t really come into focus until we clear the carnage and count casualties after this legislative session – and know how popular Obama will be in North Carolina
A historical footnote: Every North Carolinian who has run for reelection has won. Of course, that’s only three – Jim Hunt, Jim Martin and Mike Easley. And all three had the good fortune to run when economic times were good.
Which is another X Factor: whether people feel next year that the economy is coming back.
Browder, who interviewed me for his story, asked whether Perdue might face a primary challenge. Some Democratic liberals hint darkly at that, and ex-Senate candidate Ken Lewis has been mentioned.
But intra-party challenges to an incumbent are a slow-motion suicide. Think Jimmy Carter and Ted Kennedy in 1980.
Another historical footnote: Jim Hunt had a primary challenge in 1980, when he was the first governor to run for reelection. That was Bob Scott, who got trounced because he seemed to be running out of personal pique, not policy or principle. Ideological challenges are the killers.
The primary fight may be on the Republican side. Some conservative Republicans talk about Paul Coble challenging Patrick McCrory, who they say is too moderate.