Over the last year, Salisbury Attorney Bill Graham, who has never run for public office, has spent a million dollars of his own money on television ads to build a foundation for his campaign for Governor. According to a recent poll he has been successful. He now leads in the Republican primary:

Bill Graham 24%

Bob Orr 13%

Robert Pittenger 10%

Fred Smith 9%

Two of Graham’s potential opponents, State Senators Bob Pittenger and Fred Smith, also enjoy strong – or at least relatively strong – support in their home bases, giving them one advantage Graham lacks – a geographic base of support for their campaigns.

Pittenger actually leads Graham in the Charlotte area, and Smith is tied with him in Raleigh. Charlotte and Raleigh represent sixty-percent of the vote in the Republican primary and with Smith running strong in one, and Pittenger in the other, it argues, ultimately, for a close race.

What to watch? The key is who moves quickest. Roughly 45% of the vote is undecided. If Graham launches another round of ads and picks up a quarter of the undecided vote – bring his total vote to nearly 40% – his lead may be insurmountable.

In political campaigns there are two lines of thought about when it is wisest to advertise. One is to advertise early (Graham’s strategy). The other is to wait until the end, so as not to be outspent during the critical time just before the election, when voters are making up their minds. That sounds logical. But this is a case common sense is misleading. Traditionally, three-fourths of the voters decide long before Election Day. In fact, in this race 55% have already made a choice. For Senators Pittenger and Smith, and former Supreme Court Justice Robert Orr, a fourth possible candidate, the risk of waiting outweighs the risk of being outspent later.

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