A New York Ménage à tois
2011-05-23 - by
Itâs âdéjà vuâ all over again.
A couple of years ago up in New York they had a Congressional Race where a liberal Democrat was running against a liberal Republican and then a CPA â whoâd never run for anything â jumped in the race as the candidate of the New York Conservative Party and almost whipped both of them.
At the end of the election the liberal Republican â exhausted and plummeting in the polls â withdrew in a fit of pique then got revenge by endorsing the liberal Democrat (who won).
Now the New Yorkers have another three way shootout on their hands in Buffalo.
It all started when incumbent Republican Congressman Chris Lee got caught emailing sexually suggestive pictures of himself to a lady heâd met on Craigslist â and resigned.
Then Republican Jane Corwin jumped into the Special Election against Democrat Kathy Hochul and then the unexpected happened again: A third candidate, an official âTea Partyâ candidate â Jack Davis â jumped into the race.
Only Davis turned out to be not your usual Tea Party candidate. Because heâd run before. Three times. As a Democrat.
Davis also ran head on into a âtrackerâ (with a video camera) from Corwinâs campaign and âtook a swingâ at him â which backfired.
But heâs spent $3 million of his own money to get elected so heâs barreling along.
About a week ago the Siena College poll showed Corwin leading narrowly:
Democrat Hochul â 31%
Republican Corwin â 36%
Tea Party Davis â 23%
Then the Democrats at Public Policy Polling took their own poll and announced the lead had switched. Hochul was ahead:
Democrat Hochul â 35%
Republican Corwin â 31%
Tea Party Davis â 24%
Which the Democrats promptly boasted was proof Hochulâs opposing Congressman Paul Ryanâs plan to reform Medicare was a âsilver bulletâ for them in the next election because it had Hochul leading in a Republican district. But itâs hard to see a Democrat getting 35% of the vote in a district thatâs 32% Democratic as sea change.
Davis the âTea Partierâ (not Paul Ryan or Medicare) seems to be Republican Corwinâs problem â Davis is getting a quarter of the Republican vote and 30% of the Conservative vote and thatâs put a hole in Corwinâs boat.
And, long term, thatâs not a happy trend line for Washington Republicans. Theyâre losing voters to their left on Medicare reform and voters to their right by not keeping their promise to cut spending $100 billion.
A New York Ménage à tois
2011-05-23/
Itâs âdéjà vuâ all over again.
A couple of years ago up in New York they had a Congressional Race where a liberal Democrat was running against a liberal Republican and then a CPA â whoâd never run for anything â jumped in the race as the candidate of the New York Conservative Party and almost whipped both of them.
At the end of the election the liberal Republican â exhausted and plummeting in the polls â withdrew in a fit of pique then got revenge by endorsing the liberal Democrat (who won).
Now the New Yorkers have another three way shootout on their hands in Buffalo.
It all started when incumbent Republican Congressman Chris Lee got caught emailing sexually suggestive pictures of himself to a lady heâd met on Craigslist â and resigned.
Then Republican Jane Corwin jumped into the Special Election against Democrat Kathy Hochul and then the unexpected happened again: A third candidate, an official âTea Partyâ candidate â Jack Davis â jumped into the race.
Only Davis turned out to be not your usual Tea Party candidate. Because heâd run before. Three times. As a Democrat.
Davis also ran head on into a âtrackerâ (with a video camera) from Corwinâs campaign and âtook a swingâ at him â which backfired.
But heâs spent $3 million of his own money to get elected so heâs barreling along.
About a week ago the Siena College poll showed Corwin leading narrowly:
Democrat Hochul â 31%
Republican Corwin â 36%
Tea Party Davis â 23%
Then the Democrats at Public Policy Polling took their own poll and announced the lead had switched. Hochul was ahead:
Democrat Hochul â 35%
Republican Corwin â 31%
Tea Party Davis â 24%
Which the Democrats promptly boasted was proof Hochulâs opposing Congressman Paul Ryanâs plan to reform Medicare was a âsilver bulletâ for them in the next election because it had Hochul leading in a Republican district. But itâs hard to see a Democrat getting 35% of the vote in a district thatâs 32% Democratic as sea change.
Davis the âTea Partierâ (not Paul Ryan or Medicare) seems to be Republican Corwinâs problem â Davis is getting a quarter of the Republican vote and 30% of the Conservative vote and thatâs put a hole in Corwinâs boat.
And, long term, thatâs not a happy trend line for Washington Republicans. Theyâre losing voters to their left on Medicare reform and voters to their right by not keeping their promise to cut spending $100 billion.