For a year, from the night Trump announced he was running again, Biden’s unpopularity was the bedrock beneath Trump’s feet. He led in poll after poll. Until an unseen hand moved – and Biden got out. The ground shifted beneath Trump’s feet. Now poll after poll shows Trump trailing Kamala Harris.

Last week, holding another Mar-a-Lago press conference, trying to recover, Trump told voters we’re on the brink of a Depression, on the edge of World War III, called Kamala Harris ‘dumb as a rock.’ He’s said all that before. But, somehow, he didn’t sound like the same old Trump. Beneath the surface he seemed unsettled.

People in campaigns believe victory hinges on the things they do, carrying out the plans they make. They believe they hold the power in their hands to win. Until the unexpected strikes and upends them. Last week, three polls showed Trump trailing Kamala Harris nationally; this week polls showed him trailing in six of seven swing states – where he’d been ahead for months. Trump’s campaign’s reaction: Harris, they say, is enjoying a ‘honeymoon’ period – that will pass. Will it? Or is Trump’s campaign in denial?

The bickering between Trump and Biden landed us in the most broken politics we can remember. Biden’s old age and fumbling haunted voters. But they didn’t like Trump hurling insults and telling lies either. At the end of the day, Trump was leading Biden for a simple reason: People feared the consequences of Biden’s fumbles more than they feared Trump’s nastiness. When Biden got out, voters who disliked both candidates but were voting for Trump, abandoned him. Can he win them back?

He can. And the race is still close. But, in politics, the unexpected always happens – the unseen hand may move again.