Back in 2016 Hillary got a shock during Early Voting – Blacks who’d voted for Obama stayed home and didn’t vote for her.

I remember looking at the bleak (for Hillary) numbers: In 2012, when Obama ran, 22% of the voters in North Carolina were African-Americans. In 2016, only 18% of the voters were African-Americans. A four-point drop for Hillary. And she lost to Trump by 4 points.

And it didn’t just happen in North Carolina, the same thing happened up in Michigan and Pennsylvania. So this election Democrats (who can read numbers) are lasered in on getting African-Americans to go to the polls.

And Trump’s lasered in on the same problem.

According to Trump, last election 8% of the African-Americans voted for him. So, this election, at his rallies Trump is boasting about how his booming economy has cut African-American unemployment to an all-time low. He’s running ads on Facebook saying the same thing. And he’s opening special campaign headquarters in African-American neighborhoods reaching out to African-American voters.

Trump’s math is simple: If he lifts his share of the Black vote from 8% to 10%, he gains two points and Joe Biden loses two points.

Is that likely to happen? Reagan couldn’t do it. No Republican since Reagan has come close to doing it. So Trump’s sailed into uncharted waters. But if 2% or 3% of African-Americans do abandon Joe Biden (to vote for Trump) that would be an earthquake.