If the Democratic presidential race was the Kentucky Derby, John Edwards would be the third-place horse hoping for Hillary and Obama to stumble – or leave him a gap to run through.

Edwards’ best chance for a breakthrough is on the war. No other issue matters: health care, global warming, none of them. It’s all about the war.

That’s why Edwards is taking the hardest possible line on war-funding legislation.

That’s also why Hillary proposed withdrawing the original war authorization, which she and Edwards voted for. Edwards has apologized for that vote, but Hillary has refused. Now, in true Clintonesque fashion, she’s found a third way.

So Obama is facing one of those critical campaign decisions that could make or break him, Hillary and Edwards – all at once.

The choice for Obama: hard line or compromise.

My advice to him would be simple: Draw the hardest possible line to the left. Demand an end to the war firm deadline. Demand that other Democrats stand their ground.

Don’t listen to your advisers who say that’s not a responsible position. Or that it will come back to haunt you in the general election.

You don’t get to the general election and you don’t get to be President by being “responsible” now. You can be responsible when you’re President.

Obama is in the strongest position because – unlike Hillary and Edwards – he opposed the war from the start.

If Obama seizes this opening, he can cut off both his opponents. He can take the rail in this horserace and put himself in position to win.

All three candidates have image problems: Edwards for changing positions since leaving the Senate, Hillary for being calculating and Obama for being content-lite. The candidate with the most room to maneuver – and solve his problems – is Obama.

We’ll find out whether he’s bold enough to seize the opportunity.

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