Pat McCrory’s reelection problems go much deeper and much farther back than HB2. Any lift he gets from putting on his hurricane hat isn’t likely to lift him out of the floodwaters.

That’s the assessment Tom Jensen of Public Policy Polling gave at a Common Cause NC fundraiser Sunday evening.

Jensen offered a view of McCrory different from what the national media is writing. The Governor’s problems started long before he signed HB2, like 40 months before. So they are much harder to fix.

McCrory’s approval ratings have been underwater (so to speak) since mid-2013, Jensen said. That’s when the Republican legislature was ramming through a right-wing agenda that McCrory was powerless to influence, let alone stop.

So voters concluded (1) that McCrory is weak, which is fatal to a chief executive and (2) that he isn’t the moderate Republican they thought they elected.

HB2 reinforced that image at a critical moment, but didn’t create it.

Rather, Jensen said, voters always were open to an alternative to McCrory. But Roy Cooper was little-known. Voters were asking: “What’s our choice?” Then Cooper went on TV, voters saw the choice and said, “OK. Looks good to us.”

That’s why Jensen doubts McCrory will be saved by being on TV frequently during Hurricane Matthew (at least, for people who have power and cable service).

Maybe he’ll get a boost. But then he has to deal with Hurricane Donald.