A New York Ménage à tois

It’s ‘déjà vu’ all over again.
 
A couple of years ago up in New York they had a Congressional Race where a liberal Democrat was running against a liberal Republican and then a CPA – who’d never run for anything –  jumped in the race as the candidate of the New York Conservative Party and almost whipped both of them.
 
At the end of the election the liberal Republican – exhausted and plummeting in the polls – withdrew in a fit of pique then got revenge by endorsing the liberal Democrat (who won).
 
Now the New Yorkers have another three way shootout on their hands in Buffalo.
 
It all started when incumbent Republican Congressman Chris Lee got caught emailing sexually suggestive pictures of himself to a lady he’d met on Craigslist – and resigned.
 
Then Republican Jane Corwin jumped into the Special Election against Democrat Kathy Hochul and then the unexpected happened again: A third candidate, an official ‘Tea Party’ candidate – Jack Davis – jumped into the race.
 
Only Davis turned out to be not your usual Tea Party candidate. Because he’d run before. Three times. As a Democrat.  
 
Davis also ran head on into a ‘tracker’ (with a video camera) from Corwin’s campaign and ‘took a swing’ at him – which backfired.
 
But he’s spent $3 million of his own money to get elected so he’s barreling along.
 
About a week ago the Siena College poll showed Corwin leading narrowly:
                        Democrat Hochul – 31%
                        Republican Corwin – 36%
                        Tea Party Davis – 23%
 
Then the Democrats at Public Policy Polling took their own poll and announced the lead had switched. Hochul was ahead:
                        Democrat Hochul – 35%
                        Republican Corwin – 31%
                        Tea Party Davis – 24%
 
Which the Democrats promptly boasted was proof Hochul’s opposing Congressman Paul Ryan’s plan to reform Medicare was a ‘silver bullet’ for them in the next election because it had Hochul leading in a Republican district. But it’s hard to see a Democrat getting 35% of the vote in a district that’s 32% Democratic as sea change.
 
Davis the ‘Tea Partier’ (not Paul Ryan or Medicare) seems to be Republican Corwin’s problem – Davis is getting a quarter of the Republican vote and 30% of the Conservative vote and that’s put a hole in Corwin’s boat.  
 
And, long term, that’s not a happy trend line for Washington Republicans. They’re losing voters to their left on Medicare reform and voters to their right by not keeping their promise to cut spending $100 billion.
 

 

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Carter Wrenn

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A New York Ménage à tois

It’s ‘déjà vu’ all over again.
 
A couple of years ago up in New York they had a Congressional Race where a liberal Democrat was running against a liberal Republican and then a CPA – who’d never run for anything –  jumped in the race as the candidate of the New York Conservative Party and almost whipped both of them.
 
At the end of the election the liberal Republican – exhausted and plummeting in the polls – withdrew in a fit of pique then got revenge by endorsing the liberal Democrat (who won).
 
Now the New Yorkers have another three way shootout on their hands in Buffalo.
 
It all started when incumbent Republican Congressman Chris Lee got caught emailing sexually suggestive pictures of himself to a lady he’d met on Craigslist – and resigned.
 
Then Republican Jane Corwin jumped into the Special Election against Democrat Kathy Hochul and then the unexpected happened again: A third candidate, an official ‘Tea Party’ candidate – Jack Davis – jumped into the race.
 
Only Davis turned out to be not your usual Tea Party candidate. Because he’d run before. Three times. As a Democrat.  
 
Davis also ran head on into a ‘tracker’ (with a video camera) from Corwin’s campaign and ‘took a swing’ at him – which backfired.
 
But he’s spent $3 million of his own money to get elected so he’s barreling along.
 
About a week ago the Siena College poll showed Corwin leading narrowly:
                        Democrat Hochul – 31%
                        Republican Corwin – 36%
                        Tea Party Davis – 23%
 
Then the Democrats at Public Policy Polling took their own poll and announced the lead had switched. Hochul was ahead:
                        Democrat Hochul – 35%
                        Republican Corwin – 31%
                        Tea Party Davis – 24%
 
Which the Democrats promptly boasted was proof Hochul’s opposing Congressman Paul Ryan’s plan to reform Medicare was a ‘silver bullet’ for them in the next election because it had Hochul leading in a Republican district. But it’s hard to see a Democrat getting 35% of the vote in a district that’s 32% Democratic as sea change.
 
Davis the ‘Tea Partier’ (not Paul Ryan or Medicare) seems to be Republican Corwin’s problem – Davis is getting a quarter of the Republican vote and 30% of the Conservative vote and that’s put a hole in Corwin’s boat.  
 
And, long term, that’s not a happy trend line for Washington Republicans. They’re losing voters to their left on Medicare reform and voters to their right by not keeping their promise to cut spending $100 billion.
 

 

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Carter Wrenn

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