The presidential race so far has played out in two-week segments.

The last two weeks in August were the national conventions. At the end – until McCain picked Palin – Obama was moving ahead. After Palin, McCain had two good weeks. Then came the financial crisis. In the two weeks since, Obama has taken a commanding lead.

Now just under four weeks are left. So now look for the tide to turn again in the coming two-week period. The more Obama looks like a winner, the more people will pull back, hold back and have second thoughts.

That was exactly McCain’s strategy in last night’s debate – and Palin’s strategy on the stump: raise questions about Obama.

In the debate, McCain raised questions – and maybe some doubts. Obama won the image game. He looked bigger, stronger and more commanding. Physical presence is important. Witness JFK over Nixon, Reagan over Carter and Mondale and Clinton over Bush and Dole.

Still, expect the Obama tide to slow down somewhat. Then – like an ACC basketball game – we’ll be in the final two minutes. If McCain gets the score within reach by the two-week mark, anything can happen.

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