The New N&O

The paper’s print-edition changes were up for discussion at breakfast. Jim likes it: “That’s how I used to read the paper: front page first, then local and state news and Under the Dome. Now they’re all right there at the front.”   Gil’s not so happy. “My wife and I used to divvy up the…

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Inside the War Rooms

In the state where President Obama had his closest win in 2008 and his closest loss in 2012, why wouldn’t the U.S. Senate race be tight as a tick?   Carter has posted a great series of blogs about the race (although he’s wrong on the education issue). My other favorite blogger, Thomas Mills, weighed…

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The Senate Race – 5

You have to give Kay Hagan credit: A year ago the Swing Voters were ready to roll down the track and vote her out of office – and for a year Hagan kept those voters out of Thom Tillis’ camp.   The one big change in the Senate race – Tillis’ rising unpopularity with Independents…

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The Senate Race – 4

After Hagan’s first round of attacks calling Tillis a Tea Partier, a few Swing Voters decided to vote for Hagan, a few decided to vote for Tillis, but most stayed Undecided. Ambivalently Undecided. They didn’t want to vote for Obama-Hagan. But they didn’t want to vote for Tillis either.   The bad news for Tillis…

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Poll Jam

Francis DeLuca at Civitas took issue with my blog about their polls (“Cooking Numbers at Civitas.”) He tweeted (@fxdeluca): “@jgaryp thanks for the follow! But don’t appreciate your comments about Civitas polling! #youknowbetter.”   Here’s what I know. When the late Jack Hawke was at Civitas, he worked hard to give their polls credibility. But…

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The Senate Race – 3

When Thom Tillis started his campaign his prospects looked promising. Obama wasn’t just unpopular, his unpopularity was a plumb line cutting through the electorate – you were either for Obama or against him and Kay Hagan was on the wrong side of the line.   Tillis, himself, back then wasn’t too well known but he…

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In Praise of Pat

Stop the presses. I have something nice to say about Governor McCrory.   Unlike his Republican colleagues Thom Tillis, Phil Berger and Dan Forrest, McCrory said he will respect and obey the court decision on gay marriage, even if he doesn’t like it.   Good for him.   But why? I asked a couple of…

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The Senate Race – 2

When I saw Kay Hagan’s first ad saying Thom Tillis was supported by the Tea-Party-leaning-Koch-Brothers I thought, Now, that’s odd – after all, the Koch Brothers weren’t on the ballot and no one cared a hoot who they supported.   But I was dead wrong.   Because it wasn’t the Koch Brothers who mattered –…

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$6 Million Ain’t What It Used to Be

Some perspective on the breathless reports that the National Republican Senatorial Committee is pumping another $6.5 million into Thom Tillis’ campaign: What does that buy, and what does it get you with still-undecided voters?   On the buy, it gets you about half what it would get you if you had bought the time weeks…

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The Senate Race – 1

Months ago, back when she started her campaign, Kay Hagan faced a knotty problem: She was going to get the Democratic base vote; her opponent was going to get the Republican base vote; but the Swing Voters didn’t like President Obama and, so, were on track to vote Hagan out of office.   Now, theoretically,…

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