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I could never predict what will happen to the stock market. But I can predict that President Obama’s numbers will go down – soon.

It’s inevitable. And it’s no reason for Democrats to panic. They just need to prepare themselves.

Here’s why he is headed for a drop – maybe a precipitous one – in his approval ratings:

  • He’s no longer the new guy on the block. He has been there almost two months, for Pete’s sake, and he still hasn’t ended the economic crisis.
  • Americans tell pollsters they are patient, but they aren’t.
  • Obama will soon get all the blame for all that’s wrong – from AIG bonuses to the continuing drumbeat of bad economic news. Sorry, Mr. President, but it comes with the job.

Obama also hasn’t faced a crisis that gives the public confidence in his toughness and leadership ability.

In 1981, Ronald Reagan was dropping in the polls. Then he got shot. Americans were impressed with his grace in the face of death.

JFK had his Bay of Pigs early on. It was a disaster, but the public rallied around him.

Obama is hampered by a Treasury Secretary who may be the smartest guy in the world, but looks and sounds weak. Timothy Geithner does not exactly have command presence.

So a drop is coming. But that says no more about Obama’s long-term political health than today’s Dow Jones average says about the long-term economy.

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