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02
Senator Richard Burr’s ad shows he knows he could be vulnerable. Voters don’t know him or what he’s done.
 
Which supports Elaine Marshall’s case for getting the $10 million she needs from the DSCC to be competitive.
 
Senate Democrats are playing defense most everywhere this year. It would be nice to make one raid in Republican territory. Make them spend time and money here instead of against a Democratic incumbent.
 
Public Policy Polling has repeatedly noted Burr’s weakness.
 
RealClearPolitics says Burr is in “the danger zone.”
 
Marshall has a good campaign team, and she can draw a sharp contrast with Burr. She can attack him on voting for the bailout, which will temper Republicans’ enthusiasm for him and hurt him with independents.  She can attack him as a 16-year Washington politician.
 
Plus, she has an advantage: She’s a woman.
 
PPP’s analysis shows that Democratic voters aren’t energized. Money – and a visit by President Obama – could change that.
 
Which would help not only Marshall, but also Democratic congressional incumbents. And Democratic chances in the legislative races. And redistricting in 2011. And Obama’s chances here in 2012.
 
The votes are there for Marshall. The question is whether she’ll have the money to get them.
 

 

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01
A reader called today with an interesting thought spurred by Richard Burr’s ad.
 
She took issue with his suggestion that all jobs come from the private sector. She pointed out that government contracts with Blackwater, Halliburton, KBR and a raft of defense contractors sure created a bunch of jobs.
 
She has a point. When private companies aren’t hiring, a government job – or a job created by a government contract – can pay the rent.

 

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26
The rumor among Republicans is that George Holding will run against Roy Cooper for AG in 2012.
 
That assumes, of course, that Holding doesn’t stay on as U.S. Attorney forever.
 
It also assumes he finally handles his high-profile cases: Mike Easley and John Edwards.
 
Maybe Holding will punt Easley to the state, saying that the Supreme Court ruling on “honest services” makes a federal prosecution impossible.
 
That could be bad news for Edwards. It wouldn’t look good for Holding to keep the bat on his shoulder and not swing twice.
 
Of course, any prosecutor has to worry now about trying Easley or Edwards. If that clown Blagojevich got off, don’t you think Easley and/or Edwards could convince at least one juror to hold out for acquittal?

 

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24
The last couple of weeks, I’ve talked with Democrats and Republicans who are deeply involved in this year’s elections.
 
And I found a ray of hope for Democrats: 2010 may not be 1994 revisited.
 
The reason: 1994 itself.
 
What happened that year is hard-wired into Democratic DNA – in North Carolina and nationally. “1994” is a synonym for “disaster.”
 
In fact, 1994 shook Democrats so hard that they may avert disaster this year, when the climate looks just as bad as 16 years ago.
 
Case in point: the state Senate’s Democratic campaign caucus. After nearly losing their majority in 1994 – and watching Republicans take the House – they got serious about running professional campaigns: raising money, doing research and polling and producing quality mail and TV ads.
 
That’s how they kept their majority. And they have much the same professional team they built in 1996.
 
Tom Fetzer has greatly raised the Republicans’ game this year. But they’re up against a tough, experienced Democratic team.
 
The other difference – which one Republican consultant mentioned – is that the GOP tide is cresting earlier this year than in 1994. Then, Republicans began surging in September. This year, it came months earlier.
 
Then, Democrats were caught by surprise. I remember being in a meeting with then-Governor Hunt and one of his close friends. When I told them  then-Congressman Martin Lancaster might lose to Walter Jones, Hunt’s friend shot back: “You cannot tell me that little pipsqueak might beat Martin.”
 
He did. Even more stunning, David Price lost.
 
This year, Democrats aren’t asleep at the switch.
 
Now, this may all be wishful Democratic thinking. Or the Republicans may be spiking the ball before they’re in the end zone.
 

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23
For twenty years the state ‘crime lab,’ the News and Observer reports, has been withholding evidence and misleading juries at trials and sending innocent people to prison – but no one has been fired, which makes the fate of Eszter Vajda (another state employee who did lose her job last week after the firestorm over her documentary about the cyanide buried around Alcoa’s old aluminum smelter in Stanly County) seem, well, odd.
 
After months of shuffling through environmental reports and reading lawsuits and interviewing widows of Alcoa employees who’d died of cancer, Vajda was not only shocked –  she’d figured out those old files were telling a story she’d never imagined.  But part way through her documentary she ran head on into a hurdle: Her researcher, Martin Sansone, had to go home to England and her employer UNC-TV wouldn’t pay to fly him back to finish the film. 
 
Most sensible young women (and anyone with more common sense than stubbornness) would have given up on making a full length documentary when they couldn’t afford to buy an airplane ticket.  But whatever Eszter Vajda’s vices fear wasn’t one of them.  She had her teeth into a story and to be stopped by an airline ticket was insufferable – so she and Sansone asked a group of Republicans, who’re on the other side of the fight from Alcoa down in Stanly County, to pay Sansone’s expenses. 
 
Taking money from folks opposing Alcoa when you’re making a film about Alcoa wasn’t going to look good, but for years UNC-TV had been taking money from people to make films about them (say, for the Golden Leaf Foundation) so, perhaps, Vajda just looked at what UNC-TV had done in the past and figured, How is this any different?
 
Sansone flew back to Raleigh and Vajda charged ahead and then ran head on into another hurdle: Most journalists thrive on controversy because it sells newspapers.  But the managers of UNC-TV, in addition to being journalists, are level-headed government employees.  They don’t need to air controversial programs (which makes people mad at them) to make money so it’s just plain common sense for them to avoid controversy like the plague. (Two of the features on UNC-TV’s website this morning were “Share Your Favorite Baseball Memory” and “A Tour of the Great Lodges of the Canadian Rockies” with station manager Tom Howe.)
 
When her superiors at UNC-TV told Vajda they didn’t want to air her hour-long documentary she cajoled and appealed but got nowhere – then she lit into them.
 
Raleigh’s no longer a small town but word does still get around and pretty soon ears down at the legislature picked up on the rumblings between Vajda and her bosses and that landed UNC-TV in an odd place:  In the middle of a tug of war between Alcoa’s lobbyists (who were trying to kill a bill Alcoa didn’t like) and a handful of local state legislators trying to pass the bill. The legislators figured, even if they hadn’t seen her film, it couldn’t hurt if Vajda told the story of, for example, Alcoa suing the Health Department to stop it from posting signs along Badin Lake, by its smelter, warning pregnant women not to eat the fish because they were contaminated with PCBs that can cause cancer.
 
But even when the old bull-moose of the Senate, Marc Basnight, weighed in UNC-TV wouldn’t give Vajda what she wanted.  In the end she could only talk the station into airing three short segments – so most of her documentary was headed for the elephant’s graveyard of unfinished documentaries when something even more unexpected happened:  Senator Fletcher Hartsell sent a pair of subpoenas to UNC-TV and Vajda, personally, telling her to bring the full hour long version of her documentary over to his Senate Committee so Senators could look at it.
 
That didn’t trouble anyone much except Vajda’s fellow journalists who saw the idea of subpoenaing a journalist as a kind of heresy and let out a howl of outrage that would have made a tub-thumping Baptist preacher proud.  Hard bitten reporters who’d been publishing public records to embarrass governors for years roared subpoenaing a reporter was unconstitutional and UNC-TV ought to tell Senator Hartsell to stick his subpoena in his ear
 
Trapped between lobbyists, State Senators, and a mob of howling journalists UNC-TV had more controversy on its hands than it had ever dreamed of and when the Attorney General’s office told them there was no legal way to look a judge in the eye and argue a public record created by a journalist (who worked for state government) was exempt from the same laws governors have to abide by they stuck the flag.
 
Vajda trooped over to the legislature and played a rough cut of her documentary to a room packed full of Senators and Alcoa lobbyists and for the first time folks got to see The Alcoa Story and it was a doozy: Right at the start of her film Vajda launched into a list of toxic chemicals that are waste from aluminum smelting – cyanide, arsenic and PCBs – then moved right on into how Alcoa had been dumping them in Stanly County since it opened its smelter in World War I, then moved on into local cancer rates and groundwater contamination and ended up by asking a question it’s kind of amazing no one asked before: Why doesn’t the state do a study to find out if what Alcoa’s been doing down in Stanly County since World War I is a public health threat?
 
Vajda’s documentary sent a shock wave through the legislature and then another odd thing happened:  Out of a clear blue sky UNC-TV started sending letters to people who’d posted her film on the Internet ordering them to take it down because it violated their copyright.  In other words, UNC-TV was saying Vajda’s documentary was a public record but no one could show it to anyone else because it was copywrited
 
If, a year ago, Governor Easley had told the News and Observer, Sure my emails are public records. And sure you can see them. But you can’t publish them. They’re copywrited – the press would have had apoplexy.  But, this time, not one journalist complained.
 
Instead several of Vajda’s fellow journalists tore into her over Sansone’s travels and never mentioned copyrighting public records or PCBs; -- then UNC-TV issued a terse statement saying Vajda was no longer employed by the station.
 
Finally, when the smoke cleared, one local paper – Yes, Weekly – did ask Alcoa the million dollar question – and it’s about all the vindication Vajda is likely to get.
 
What, the paper asked, did Alcoa claim was biased about Vajda’s film?  
 
Well, it wasn’t true, Alcoa spokesman Mike Bellwood said, that Alcoa is a trillion dollar corporation like Ms. Vajda reported. Then he added that Vajda was also wrong when she reported Alcoa’s Yadkin Dams could be ‘recaptured’ by Congress for $16 million. (In fairness to Vajda, in her documentary she actually said Alcoa had told the Federal Energy Regulatory Commission ‘recapture’ would cost $24 million.) 
 
As Yes, Weekly pointed out Alcoa didn’t dispute a word Vajda had reported about the cyanide buried around its smelter.
 

 

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13
As House Democratic Leader Joe Hackney and House Republican Leader ‘Skip’ Stam watched beaming, Governor Perdue signed the states latest ‘Ethics Law.’
 
Hackney then said it was wonderful that Democrats were cleaning up the mess in state government, and Stam said it was a shame the Democrats had created the mess in the first place.
 
However, truth be told, the laws legislators left out of the bill are more important than the ones they put in.
 
For example: They left out a law that would have made candidates personally liable for the fines when  if their campaigns violate state elections laws. Legislators killed that law in a New York minute.
 
And they left out another law that would have limited how much money government contractors can give to the politicians granting their contracts. Legislators said that might make it harder for companies that already had contracts to get more state work – because somehow, they reasoned, it would give companies without contracts a competitive advantage. 

At least there’s no doubt that’s true – in North Carolina nothing gets a government contract like a contribution.
 
           
 
 

 

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11
North Carolina Republicans are a long way from winning this fall’s legislative elections, but they’re winning the battle of perceptions.
 
And that battle has big implications for fundraising.
 
Three sources have told me in the last week that the Republicans’ presentations on their prospects for the fall are blowing away the Democrats.
 
One source, a Democrat, said maybe it’s that the Republicans just have an easier story to tell this year, with the political winds at their backs. Or maybe the Democrats are playing possum. Or maybe they’re just down and discouraged.
 
Whatever, the Democratic House and Senate caucus leaders need to step up their games if they’re going to win the money race.

 

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10
Back when Beverly Perdue was running for Governor, just before the election I needed a piece of election law clarified before I ran two ads – so I called the State Board of Elections.  I wasn’t too hopeful.  I thought, Here I am asking a bunch of Democrats about running ads attacking a Democrat – so what do you think they’re going to tell you? I figured, at best, I would have to wait until months after the election for an answer.
 
But the Election Board’s Executive Director, Gary Bartlett, and his staff (including Kim Strach) didn’t beat around the bush a bit. They gave me a blunt straight answer that didn’t cut Perdue any slack and I made the ads.
 
The Democrat appointed State Elections Board has been investigating and pillorying Democrats for going on seven years now and the whole time it hasn’t pilloried a single leading Republican.  The Board investigated Democratic Secretary of Agriculture Meg Scott Phipps, Democratic Speaker of the House Jim Black and Democratic Governor Mike Easley.  Its televised hearings into Democratic corruption made Chairman Larry Leake and Director Gary Bartlett potential candidates for the Republican Party Hall of Fame.
 
So it was surprising to open the newspaper the other morning and read Republicans calling for Leake and Bartlett to be fired, saying they’ve whitewashed a scandal involving Democratic Governor Bev Perdue.
 
My guess is the next words we hear will be the Democrats saying, Sure.  Fine.  Just give us one second to get out a pen to sign the order.
 

 

 

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09
Under the Dome reports that Republicans “had a field day” with Elaine Marshall’s stumble over whether she wants President Obama to campaign in North Carolina.
 
In the end, she said: “I would welcome President Obama to North Carolina.”
 
So here’s the question for Senator Burr:
 
Does he welcome Sarah Palin to North Carolina?
 
Like Obama, Palin polarizes voters. She fires up the base on both sides, and she scares voters in the middle.
 
Again, Marshall should ask Burr: where do you stand, Richard?

 

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05
Senator Richard Burr is a proud graduate of Wake Forest University. He played football there.
 
Today, in the Senate, he is a proud opponent of wasteful federal spending.
 
Apparently, he must choose between the two.
 
John Murawski reports in the N&O that two of Burr’s Senate Republican colleagues, John McCain and Tom Coburn, have judged three research projects at Wake Forest to be “among the 100 most wasteful stimulus-funded projects in the country.” Murawski adds:
 
Wake Forest University in Winston-Salem got the dubious honor of three citations on the list. The university is using a $144,541 grant to test the effect of cocaine on monkeys, a $294,958 grant to measure the benefits of yoga to control hot flashes in post-menopausal women, and a $266,505 grant to put on science education workshops for journalists.”
 
Personally, I strongly support monkeys getting high, women doing yoga and journalists learning about science.
 
Where do you stand, Richard?

 

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