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Entries for 'Gary Pearce'
Gary Pearce posted on December 19, 2012 10:39
Even if he doesn’t (as is rumored) become Governor-elect McCrory’s budget director, Art Pope will be a power.
So – despite its disclaimers – let’s assume the Civitas Institute channels Pope’s thinking when it proposes doing away with the state income tax and replacing it with a broader sales tax.
And let’s assume that McCrory and the Republican legislature have the votes to pass whatever they want.
The question is whether they will pave the way for a Democratic revival.
Yes, McCrory looks strong today. And, yes, the Republicans artfully and ruthless gerrymandered the districts.
But public opinion is a powerful thing. And politics is an unpredictable thing.
Last week, Senator Josh Stein of Raleigh spelled out the Democratic response in a speech to NC FREE.
Noting that the personal income tax generates half of the state’s revenue, or $10 billion, he said:
“If the legislature abolishes, or even cuts in half, the personal income tax, either way, the resulting state sales tax rate required to replace that revenue would be the highest in the nation….
“To pay for the elimination of the personal income tax, the amount of taxes paid by the bottom half would go up whereas the amount paid by the top half would go down, with the greatest savings reserved for the top 1 percent….
“All you have to do is ask yourself whether you believe that the General Assembly (or any other representative body for that matter) would have the stomach to impose $5-10 billion in new taxes to offset the income tax cuts in order to make the plan revenue neutral.”
What might happen instead, Stein said, is “the further defunding of public education” – preschool, public school and the university system.
A similar message worked well for President Obama this year. And Romney wasn’t proposing to raise sales taxes or slash education.
Given gerrymandering, GOP legislators might survive politically. Unhappy voters’ only recourse would be to elect a new Governor in four years.
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Gary Pearce posted on December 18, 2012 10:02
Don’t underestimate how much the Newtown killings can change politics. It has happened before.
In 1995, President Clinton was struggling to be relevant in a Washington dominated by Newt Gingrich and his newly triumphant Republican majority. Then came the Oklahoma City bombing. Seizing the moment, Clinton spoke for the nation’s grief and anger. The tone of politics shifted. Gingrich and the Republicans began a long, slow slide. Clinton cruised to reelection. Gingrich never recovered.
Even the horror of that bombing doesn’t compare to this. Nothing compares to the cold-blooded, face-to-face murder of little children in schoolrooms.
Americans are united in grief. But we’re divided in our anger. Many of us are angry about guns. Many are angry because their guns are threatened.
You can watch the divide play out on social media. Friends and relatives argue on-line – or unfriend each other.
President Obama spoke eloquently to the grief of all and to the anger about guns.
He clearly is planning something. And he has to act. While passions inevitably will cool and the NRA will bide its time, there is too much political pressure on the President and congressional Democrats.
This is going to be a bitter and divisive battle. Like the slavery debate in “Lincoln,” there can be no compromise – one winner and one loser.
And the battle could change politics dramatically.
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Gary Pearce posted on December 17, 2012 11:19
After news broke about the cold-blooded murder of six- and seven-year-old children, some people said, “Now is not the time to debate gun control – it’s time to grieve.”
Now it’s time to debate gun control.
On Friday, President Obama led the grieving. Often mocked for his Spock-like demeanor, he showed more emotion than we’ve ever seen from a President.
He clearly knows where he’s going on this. His powerful speech Sunday night was a statement of resolve. He never said “guns;” he talked about protecting children.
Now comes the hard part: What to do about guns? How do we balance a clear constitutional right to own guns with a clear and present danger to too many Americans – like the children who were shot repeatedly by a military-style assault weapon?
Negotiating the fiscal cliff is tough. It will be far tougher to negotiate Americans’ divide over guns.
Then maybe we can talk about why it’s easier to buy a gun that get mental-health treatment for disturbed and sometimes dangerous people.
Let’s get on with it.
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Gary Pearce posted on December 14, 2012 09:30
Behind the controversy over Governor-elect McCrory’s foundation-fundraiser on Inaugural Day, there’s a story about “shadow governments.”
Since Democrats have time on their hands, they should take note of how these governments-in-waiting can develop ideas, leaders and public support.
Exhibit A is the John Locke Foundation. You may not like it, but give Art Pope & Co. credit: They gave McCrory a head start on his administration.
Governors Martin and Holshouser, by contrast, came in cold, with a short bench and little institutional knowledge.
The Locke Foundation has been preparing for this for 20 years. And one of its products, Thomas Stith, will be the Governor’s chief of staff.
Now, as an N&O editorial noted, there is the new Foundation for North Carolina – a “tax-exempt group that can accept unlimited donations and doesn’t have to publicly disclose its donors.”
Founder Jack Hawke said the group’s work will “correspond with the issues he (McCrory) laid out in the campaign. As a general rule, it will be helping to put meat on the bones around these issues and help sell them to the public.”
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Gary Pearce posted on December 13, 2012 15:51
Pat McCrory ran against a “pay-to-play culture of corruption.” Now his inauguration day features what looks like a special-interest money grab.
His foundation fundraiser gives critics and the media an easy, negative story line for his administration.
His strategy is: Suck up as much money as you can in anonymous corporate gifts. Plow it into your political machine to keep yourself in power for eight years.
His critics will say: This is a hell of a way to “clean up Raleigh.”
Public Policy Polling says McCrory starts out with a 53-25 positive rating. But that’s not a long way above 50 percent. And it’s with a 33-35 rating among registered Democrats.
How long will this last?
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Gary Pearce posted on December 12, 2012 10:21
One thing I enjoy about this blog is learning how Carter and his political crowd see the world. It’s a lot different from how my crowd sees it.
I mention this because it drives some of my friends crazy that I associate in any way with Carter. One said he avoided me for two years because Carter ran a campaign that beat his candidate in 2010.
But, as Yogi Berra said, “sometimes you hear a lot just by listening.” You can even learn something.
For example, Carter says he put on polls this year a question something like, “Do you agree or disagree with the statement that America today is not the same country you grew up in?”
Most people agreed. But I’m guessing that people in Carter’s world (call it Red America) think that’s bad and people in my world (Blue America) think it’s good.
Red America sees a breakdown in social values, morality, religious faith and responsible behavior. Blue America sees a heartening trend toward tolerance, opportunity, racial equality and social fairness.
I need to read more – and understand better. Maybe we all should, whichever world we’re in.
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Gary Pearce posted on December 11, 2012 11:18
Here’s some sincere transition advice for Governor-elect McCrory – from somebody who’s been there: Focus on your key staff first, then your Cabinet.
Every incoming Governor and President makes a big show about Cabinet appointments. Too often, they short-shift their key staff.
Two examples: The Chief of Staff and the Communications Director will have more to do with a new Governor’s success or failure than anybody else.
The chief of staff, if he or she is good, will make sure everybody in the administration toes the line – and that there’s a line to toe.
The communications director will determine whether the administration’s story is being told well.
On the personal level, a governor will spend a lot more time with those two people than with any Cabinet secretary.
And the Governor can count on the chief of staff to fire a bad Cabinet secretary. If the chief of staff doesn’t work out, the Governor has to do the firing.
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Gary Pearce posted on December 10, 2012 14:23
The biggest demographic problem for the Republican Party may not be Hispanics, but cities – and increasing urbanization.
In 2012, Democrats won in cities, and Republicans won outside the cities. The more urban a state’s population, the more likely it voted for Obama.
Unfortunately for Republicans – in North Carolina and nationally – cities are where the growth is. Already, the Southern Growth Policies Board says, almost 60 percent of the U.S. population lives in cities of one million or more.
And the trend is accelerating. That’s because most job growth is in the cities – like the Triangle and Charlotte metro areas.
By 2030, North Carolina is expected to grow by another three million people. Where do you think they’ll live?
This is all part of the “Big Sort.” People in cities are younger and more culturally attuned to Democrats. One example: attitudes about gay marriage.
Governor-elect McCrory won big partly because he did better in cities, especially his home county of Mecklenburg. He beat Romney there by some 40,000 votes.
Maybe that’s why McCrory and Speaker Thom Tillis were less vehement about Raleigh’s Dix deal than Senator Phil Berger.
For Democrats, this is all reason for hope.
For McCrory, it poses a policy/political question: Does he resist this trend with his economic-development policies? Does he try to force job growth away from cities? Is that even doable?
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Gary Pearce posted on December 08, 2012 10:21
A veteran Raleigh observer says “Governor-elect Pat McCrory is off to a surprisingly rough start.”
Here’s the TAPster’s critique:
“He’s a seasoned politician but acts like an amateur (or a Wake school board member). Here are three examples of conflict where he should’ve known better:
“The N&O busted him for not quitting his rain-making job at a law firm. His critics are correct: he should’ve quit that job the day after the election. If he needs the money, he should pay himself from the generous transition kitty provided by the state.
“He got tangled up unnecessarily in the Dix mess. He’s not sworn in yet, so he could’ve taken a pass and let the current governor and legislators duke it out. And then clean up their mess later.
“He infuriated hundreds of Junior Leaguers by agreeing to take the spotlight off their sacred Inaugural Ball. Sounds like he will attend the Ball, but he also says he will attend another big inaugural event to raise money for a hurriedly created GOP political group. Why mess with a long-standing, harmless tradition other than to allow GOP operatives to take advantage of him to shake the tree for more money?”
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Gary Pearce posted on December 07, 2012 09:09
As their time in office winds down, Governors and Presidents often come down with LLS – Legacy-Leaving Syndrome.
Symptoms include a sudden fever to leave on a high note, a thirst to do something big and memorable. Side effects include a tendency to overreach (see Haley Barbour and Bill Clinton).
LLS actually can cure old ailments: Many departing executives experience a sudden rush of courage and a willingness to set aside political caution.
Frequently, you hear what one of Governor Perdue’s long-time supporters said after she pushed through the Dix land deal this week: “I wish she had governed that way for four years.”
If she had, she might be preparing today for her second inauguration.
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