posted on June 05, 2012 10:46
We all know one of those ‘Eeyores’ who whatever happens can’t help seeing a dark lining in every silver cloud, but most times when a fellow’s handed a blessing he didn’t earn or expect he just naturally starts looking on his future with more optimism.
Since the last election there’s been a happy mantra going around Republican circles in Raleigh that goes like this: We’ve won every Presidential Election in North Carolina since 1976 except when Obama won in 2008 which the 2010 Election proved was a fluke; – Pat McCrory’s leading Walter Dalton, there’s no way Democrats can win back either the State House or Senate because we re-drew the districts and we’re going to pick up four Congressional Seats because we re-drew those districts too.
But for all their optimism there’s one question nagging Republicans: Which election was the fluke? 2010 or 2008?
And the Democrats believe they may know the answer. Because they say: Look at the numbers. Just about everyone who could vote voted in 2008. And what did we learn? We learned that neither party has an advantage. That we’re an evenly divided state. Now look at the 2010 election. Renee Ellmers’ race is an example. She beat Bob Etheridge because fewer African Americans voted, fewer Democrats voted and fewer Independents (who’d supported Obama) voted. That’s not going to happen again in 2012. We’ve seen this exact same thing happen before. It happened eighteen years ago. Republicans won in 1994. But Bill Clinton and Jim Hunt won in 1996.
So, last election did the world turn Republican or was the election just a protest vote against Obama – and if it was will that anti-Obama wave still be rolling in November? Which leads straight to another question:
How popular is Mitt Romney going to be after Obama dumps $100 million in negative attacks on him? Because in November if whatever Obama turns Romney into – a Wall Street robber baron or whatever – turns out to be less popular than a wild-eyed big spending liberal then this election’s going to be a whole different kettle of fish from the last one.