Gary Pearce posted on May 24, 2012 08:39
Republican operatives and political reporters alike are busy arguing that President Obama will have a tough time winning North Carolina this year.
They’re right, to a point. But they’re missing the point: As long as we’re debating Obama’s chances of winning North Carolina, Obama is winning the presidential race.
Obama does not have to win North Carolina to win reelection. He could win Virginia, Indiana or Colorado, to name a few of his breakthrough-opportunity states.
But Romney has to win here. Romney has no path to the White House that does not run through North Carolina.
If Romney is forced to spend time and money here – defending his essential base – he can’t spend it in another battleground state.
So Obama is spreading the field. He’s forcing Romney to defend more terrain. He’s sapping Romney’s time, money and attention.
Plus, don’t underestimate Obama’s chances this year. Republicans did in 2008, and they sound just as over-confident now.
Yes, I understand all the math and one-time factors that were decisive in 2008 election results: minority and young voters turned out in record numbers, independents went for Obama, McCain’s campaign messed up, voters were fed up with Bush and the Republicans, etc., etc.
Here’s a number that could tip the math in Obama’s favor this time: hundreds of thousands of college students who are potential Obama voters. They are the reason the gay-marriage amendment failed in several counties. Their potential to swing the election is unlimited.