Gary Pearce posted on May 15, 2008 22:45
Ferrel Guillory, the director of the Program on Public Life at UNC, made a penetrating observation the other day.
We were talking about Hillary Clinton’s focus on white working class voters – and the resultant media obsession on the same.
Clinton argues, essentially, that Obama can’t win in November because he can’t get working-class whites.
Well, Ferrel asked: How many of these voters are there?
In North Carolina, we no longer have the textile, furniture and cigarette-factory workers. But we have plenty of manufacturing – auto and truck parts, pharmaceuticals and the like.
But how many people is that? What are they like politically? And, more to the point, are there more of them than there are of African-American voters, or the young voters Obama is attracting, or the more professional, affluent, liberal and independent voters?
Then Ferrel asked another question about the working-class whites: Are any of them going to vote for any Democrat in November? Or have they all gone Republican already? Will they vote for McCain regardless of whether the Democrat is Obama or Clinton?
The lesson here is that our economy has changed, in North Carolina and the nation. So, logically, our demography has changed. But I’m not sure anyone has a handle on how much we have changed – and how that will impact the fall election.
The demographic revolution was part of the Obama blowout in North Carolina. What does it mean for November?
By the way, for more of Ferrel’s penetrating observations and analysis, go to www.southnow.org.
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