|
|
|
Entries for 2012
Gary Pearce posted on October 11, 2012 15:45
While Mitt Romney was morphing into a moderate last week, an aide to Pat McCrory sent out an email calling his candidate a “centrist Republican.” Two questions: How do conservative Republicans feel about that, and how will both men govern if elected?
The email was from J. C. Blucher Ehringhaus, III of Charlotte, who told friends in an October 3 email: “I have joined Pat McCrory's Campaign for Governor as a Senior Advisor….Pat McCrory is basically a good and decent person, a centrist Republican, who seeks common ground in order to produce practical and workable solutions…. His conservative principles are well grounded in reality, his governing style is collaborative, and he is imminently (sic) fair-minded.”
NCSU Professor Andy Taylor pointed out at a forum last week that McCrory didn’t have to go through a primary and prove his conservative credentials. Romney, before he tacked to the middle, had to claim in the primaries that he had been a “severely conservative governor.” Sounds like a disease.
In the presidential debate, Romney’s pivot to the center threw Obama. Obama shouldn’t have been surprised. Romney has changed his spots often throughout his career.
But would Mitt and Pat govern as moderates? Or would they kowtow to the right-wingers and Tea Partiers who now strike fear in Republicans? And would that give Democrats an open door back in 2014 and 2016?
[Click to read and post comments...]
Gary Pearce posted on October 10, 2012 14:29
Could one debate turn the presidential race upside down and give Mitt Romney a comeback win over President Obama? Yes, and there are 67.2 million reasons why.
Nielsen says that’s how many people watched last Wednesday’s debate. It was “the highest-rated first election-season debate since 1980.” Of the viewers, 12 million were age 18-34 and 30 million were 55 and older.
They watched because it was their first chance to measure the two men against each other. For many people, it was their first chance to see Romney without the lens of media coverage and TV ads (his and the Obama campaign’s).
Like him or not, Romney was impressive. Like him or not, Obama was stunningly disappointing. Romney looked caring and competent. Obama looked over his head. No wonder Romney is rising in the polls.
Even more people may watch the next debate. They want to know if the first was a fluke, if Romney will hold up and Obama step up.
Joe Biden can give Democrats hope and heart this week, but that’s all. The election now rides squarely on the President’s shoulders. He has to earn his job back.
[Click to read and post comments...]
Gary Pearce posted on October 10, 2012 09:21
Governor Hunt, my old boss, is like a veteran rock band that still rocks. He may be 75, but he’s still on his game. Even Pat McCrory is cozying up to him.
Hunt gave a well-received speech at the Democratic Convention. Unlike a lot of speakers, he didn’t promote himself. He’s beyond needing to do that. He bragged about North Carolina and made sure Terry Sanford got his due.
The last couple of weeks, Hunt has done some innovative events for the Obama campaign, talking to voters in their homes.
Walter Dalton’s campaign made sure to quote his praise of Dalton’s education plan.
And in the gubernatorial debate last Wednesday, Pat McCrory made a point of saying how he and Governor Hunt agreed on Charlotte’s mass-transit program in 1996.
Of course, all this drives the Hunt-haters crazy. So will this blog. Which makes it even sweeter.
[Click to read and post comments...]
Gary Pearce posted on October 08, 2012 14:59
Jim Lehrer deserves a break. If he made a mistake moderating the presidential debate, it wasn’t that he should have done more to rein in Romney and Obama. He should have done less.
The presidential debate, with its free-flowing format, was much more informative than the gubernatorial debate, which stuck to the stiff and stifling “two minutes and your time is up” style.
No moderator can keep the President of the United States and his challenger from dominating the debate. They are, by definition, dominating men.
So let ‘em have at it. Let them ask each other questions – like Jim Hunt and Jesse Helms did in 1984.
Lehrer’s biggest mistake was to keep asking: “Don’t you admit there’s a difference between you two on…” one issue or other. Well, gee, Jim: yes. That’s why they’re running against each other.
Let’s have a debate where Walter Dalton and Pat McCrory go at each other with no holds barred. We’d learn a lot more than we did the other night.
[Click to read and post comments...]
Gary Pearce posted on October 06, 2012 14:56
A country lawyer – and conservative Democrat - says Mitt Romney may have made a big mistake in the first debate, despite the quick boost he got.
“Whatever you say in your opening argument, you’d better back it up when you present your case,” the lawyer said.
To wit: Did Romney lie when he said he wouldn’t cut taxes 20 percent?
Obama’s campaign already has an ad up saying, yes, he lied. If that ad works – and Obama exploits the opening – Romney’s strong showing Wednesday night could end up hurting him.
Voters, like juries, don’t like being misled.
[Click to read and post comments...]
Gary Pearce posted on October 05, 2012 09:45
Walter Dalton’s feisty debate performance gave his campaign a spark and got under Pat McCrory’s skin. That’s a weakness that would hurt McCrory in the Governor’s office.
If McCrory didn’t like Dalton’s questions and attacks, wait until the media gets after him. And that’s just a matter of time in a media culture that prizes fact-checking and investigations.
Wait until the legislative leadership decides to show him who’s boss. Wait until a couple of really, really conservative Republican legislators squawk when McCoy makes a moderate peep. Wait until the entrenched bureaucracy protects itself by leaking some juicy tidbits.
And wait until he is finally forced to answer the question of how he’s going to close the $2 billion to $11 billion from cutting or eliminating personal and corporate income taxes. The debate panel led him slide by that one Wednesday night. He’ll have to answer if he is elected, and the answer is clear: Either raise some other taxes, or cut education even more.
[Click to read and post comments...]
Gary Pearce posted on October 04, 2012 10:23
Mitt Romney sliced and diced President Obama last night. Obama looked like he’d rather be celebrating his anniversary with Michelle. If he keeps this up, they won’t spend their next anniversary in the White House, let alone with 40 million people.
See the rule from my blog yesterday (and my ever-so-accurate prediction): “Bugs Bunny always beats Daffy Duck.” That is, the most comfortable person on stage wins. That was Romney.
From the start, he was crisp, commanding and on-message. In his first answer, he talked about real people’s problems. He ticked off his five points. The whole time, he addressed Obama directly and watched him steadily when Obama talked. The President kept “uh’ing” and looking down. Maybe he was making notes to fire his debate-prep team.
Here’s the real question now: Did Romney tell the truth? He seemed to throw Obama off from the start by simply denying he ever wanted a big tax cut. Huh? I thought that was his whole campaign.
Throughout his career, Romney has had a breathtaking ability to deny he did what he just did – or said what he just said. Will it catch up to him now?
As for Obama, he really hasn’t had a strong public performance throughout this campaign. His convention speech was no great shakes. His bounce in the polls came from his campaign ads, the convention and Bill Clinton. For that matter, Obama has had trouble making his own case since he became President – despite a strong record of achievement.
It’s baffling.
But take heart, Democrats. I’ve been through plenty of bad first debates, on both sides. Jim Hunt slapped Jesse Helms around in their first debate in 1984, but Helms recovered in later debates and, of course, won the election. Jim Gardner stunned Hunt with his aggressiveness in 1992, but Hunt came back strong next time and, of course, won the election.
Still, last night changes the story line. The next two weeks, at least, will be about Romney’s comeback.
[Click to read and post comments...]
Gary Pearce posted on October 03, 2012 09:23
I have a feeling that Mitt Romney will get a bounce out of tonight’s debate. Not because I play the ridiculous expectations game, but because a Romney bounce is due and he can easily do well.
He needs to set aside all the conflicting and confusing advice candidates always get before debates. I spent almost 30 years doing debate prep, and I found one piece of advice that always works: Bugs Bunny always beats Daffy Duck.
This comes from author-pundit Jeff Greenfield. In the cartoons, Daffy Duck was spewing spittle and flying off the handle. Bugs was cool. And Bugs always got the best of things.
In other words, the most comfortable person on the stage is always the debate winner. Think JFK and Nixon.
Now, it’s hard to beat Barack Obama there. He is Mr. Cool.
But if Romney is confident and steady – especially after his unsteady last few weeks – he will get another look from undecided and weakly committed voters.
Plus, as I’ve said before, the media is looking for a new story. They’re getting tired of writing that Obama has it won.
Romney’s risk is that he overpreps, comes out tight, starts firing off odd “zingers” and sounding stiff and out of touch. Think Al Gore and George H.W. Bush.
If he comes across as an approximation of a normal human being, he’ll be back in the thick of it. And momentum will shift.
[Click to read and post comments...]
Gary Pearce posted on October 02, 2012 17:19
Here is a debate preview from a TAPster who combines the best qualities of Carter and me: namely, hating both parties equally:
“Political dweebs everywhere will gather around their TVs Wednesday night for the much-anticipated debates between the North Carolina gubernatorial candidates and the Obama-Romney showdown.
“The NC debate is meaningless. The two candidates are good guys and essentially philosophic mirror images of each other. Pat McCrory has such big poll numbers that only a catastrophic debate performance will move the needle.
“The presidential debates, however, could make a difference. A smug Obama will glibly deliver his typical platter of pabulum, and try not to screw up. A superficial Romney will try to prove he cares about 100 percent of Americans, and try not to screw up.
“The undecideds and unaffiliated are sitting out there waiting for a reason to vote for somebody. A juicy debate screwup or two could change the election.”
[Click to read and post comments...]
Gary Pearce posted on October 02, 2012 13:53
Republicans unhappy with Obama-leaning polls are resorting to what one wit called “the time-honored practice of making things up.” Led by Dick Morris, they engage in imaginative re-engineering of poll results to make things look better for Mitt Romney.
I asked a Democratic pollster I trust about the Republican revisionism. His reply:
“I suspect Romney has a few ‘hidden’ votes (as do most challengers, especially challengers opposing incumbents favored by the media), and Romney has an opportunity to quiet some of the doubt about him in the debates. The latter would help him in two ways. Republicans would be somewhat more likely to participate in polls, and he will begin converting some of the ‘undecided’ voters who are not willing to commit to the incumbent.”
But there’s no arguing that leading independent polls – and the averages of reliable polls – show that Obama has opened up a lead. And swing voters just don’t like or trust Romney.
It’s still close. But close isn’t so close in presidential races. Voters already know about all they’re going to know about both Romney and President Obama. That leaves little room for movement.
One national reporter told me last week he’s looking at coming to North Carolina just because it’s one of the few battleground states where Romney is still within the margin of error.
Maybe the debates will change things. Maybe the media will just get tired of writing the same story and see a Romney comeback.
One way or another, Romney can still win. Even if you don’t make stuff up.
[Click to read and post comments...]
|
|
|